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Model 1.1

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Atletico Avila FC v Anzoátegui FC

Atletico Avila FC
1–2Full time
Anzoátegui FC

Copa Venezuela · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 23:00
Atletico Avila FC 1–2 Anzoátegui FC ANZOÁTEGUI FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Anzoátegui FC win57%
The market said34%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.286
The market’s Brier score0.659

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Anzoátegui FC win at 57%.
  2. 0′Little has changed for our model: Anzoátegui FC 57% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 13–29–58
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Atletico Avila FC v Anzoátegui FC
  4. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Anzoátegui FC win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
  5. 36′We said Anzoátegui FC at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 55–30–15
  6. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Atletico Avila FC 1–0 Anzoátegui FC
  7. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Anzoátegui FC win: 57% at kick-off, 15% now
  8. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Atletico Avila FC win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Anzoátegui FC win 15%)
  9. 37′Atletico Avila FC find the net on 37′. 0–0. 0–0 · 12–43–45
  10. 37′We said Anzoátegui FC at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 12–43–45
  11. 37′GOAL DISALLOWED · 37' Atletico Avila FC
  12. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Anzoátegui FC win: 57% at kick-off, 45% now
  13. 40′We said Anzoátegui FC at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 12–44–43
  14. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Atletico Avila FC 0–1 Anzoátegui FC
  15. 43′Anzoátegui FC find the net on 43′. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–11–88
  16. 43′We said Anzoátegui FC at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 0–1 · 1–11–88
  17. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Anzoátegui FC win: 57% at kick-off, 88% now
  18. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Anzoátegui FC win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Atletico Avila FC win 1%)
  19. 45′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 1–10–88
  20. 45′SECOND HALF Atletico Avila FC 0–1 Anzoátegui FC
  21. 49′A goal for Atletico Avila FC on 50′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 11–50–38
  22. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Atletico Avila FC 1–1 Anzoátegui FC
  23. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Anzoátegui FC win: 57% at kick-off, 38% now
  24. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Anzoátegui FC win 38%)
  25. 50′We said Anzoátegui FC at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 11–51–38
  26. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Anzoátegui FC win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
  27. 57′We said Anzoátegui FC at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 10–56–33
  28. 63′We said Anzoátegui FC at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 9–62–29
  29. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Anzoátegui FC
  30. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Anzoátegui FC win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
  31. 70′We said Anzoátegui FC at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–2 · 0–7–92
  32. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Atletico Avila FC 1–2 Anzoátegui FC · E. Franco
  33. 71′72′ and it is 1–2: Anzoátegui FC have scored. 1–2 · 0–7–93
  34. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Anzoátegui FC win: 57% at kick-off, 92% now
  35. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Anzoátegui FC win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 7%)
  36. 73′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–6–93
  37. 78′We said Anzoátegui FC at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  38. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Anzoátegui FC win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
  39. 95′1–2 at the end. Our 57% on Anzoátegui FC comes in. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  40. FTFULL TIME Atletico Avila FC 1–2 Anzoátegui FC
  41. FTAtletico Avila FC 1–2 Anzoátegui FC · Anzoátegui FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Anzoátegui FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Avila FC 13%, draw 30%, Anzoátegui FC 57%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 28%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Avila FC v Anzoátegui FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 19:45 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Avila FC win13%
Draw30%
Anzoátegui FC win57%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 20:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atletico Avila FC

Anzoátegui FC

7Days since last match35
1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Anzoátegui FC337
2Atletico Avila FC3-14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · anzoátegui fc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 19:45 · locked at kick-off
57% The market34%
Us57%
Market34%

We make Anzoátegui FC a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 23 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Atletico Avila FC v Anzoátegui FC0.48 – 1.31
Last six in Copa VenezuelaW1 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 4 v 72 v 1
The market · Anzoátegui FC win34% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60% 9 OCT 06:2114 OCT 18:16
Our probability · anzoátegui fc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Atletico Avila FC win13%40%−27
Draw30%26%+4
Anzoátegui FC win57%34%+23
Over 2.5 goals27%49%−22
Both teams to score28%53%−25
Over 1.5 goals54%72%−18
Over 3.5 goals11%28%−17
Atletico Avila FC or draw43%66%−23
Atletico Avila FC clean sheet27%––
Anzoátegui FC clean sheet62%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 21.6%
0123450 17.0 21.6 14.4 6.3 2.1 1 7.6 10.8 6.9 3.0 2 2.5 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Avila FC down, Anzoátegui FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsANZ 3–1 ATL

Form · last six in Copa Venezuela

ATLETICO AVILA FC

LWD1–3 · 1–0 · 0–0

ANZOÁTEGUI FC

WLDWDW3–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Anzoátegui FC337
2Atletico Avila FC3-14
3Petare FC4-22
4Marítimo000

The competition's standings.