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Aragua FC v Caracas FC
Aragua FCCaracas FCCopa Venezuela · WED 14 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Caracas FC win at 50%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Caracas FC 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 22–28–50
- 1′KICK-OFF Aragua FC v Caracas FC
- 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Aragua FC 0–1 Caracas FC
- 21′A goal for Caracas FC on 21′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–16–79
- 21′We said Caracas FC at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 0–1 · 5–16–79
- 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Caracas FC win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
- 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Aragua FC 1–1 Caracas FC
- 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Caracas FC win: 50% at kick-off, 45% now
- 24′24′ and it is 1–1: Aragua FC have scored. 1–1 · 21–34–45
- 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Caracas FC win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
- 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Aragua FC 2–1 Caracas FC · Laya
- 42′GOAL DISALLOWED · 42' Aragua FC
- 44′We said Caracas FC at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 19–43–38
- 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Caracas FC win 38%)
- 45′PENALTY MISSED · 45' Aragua FC
- 45′SECOND HALF Aragua FC 1–1 Caracas FC
- 51′We said Caracas FC at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 65–26–9
- 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Aragua FC 2–1 Caracas FC · E. Laya
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Caracas FC win: 50% at kick-off, 9% now
- 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Aragua FC win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 26%)
- 53′Aragua FC find the net on 53′. 2–1. 2–1 · 66–25–8
- 54′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 67–25–8
- 68′We said Caracas FC at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
- 69′Aragua FC find the net on 52′. 2–1. 2–1 · 77–20–3
- 69′🟨 YELLOW · 1' Caracas FC
- 69′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Caracas FC
- 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Aragua FC 3–1 Caracas FC · A. Garcia
- 71′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–3–0
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Caracas FC win: 50% at kick-off, 0% now
- 72′A goal for Aragua FC on 71′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–2–0
- 92′PENALTY MISSED · 45' J. Villafraz · Aragua FC
- 95′3–1 at the end. Our 50% on Caracas FC misses, and the record keeps it. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Aragua FC 3–1 Caracas FC
- FTAragua FC 3–1 Caracas FC · Caracas FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassCaracas FC are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Aragua FC 21%, draw 29%, Caracas FC 50%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 41%.
Pre-match prediction
Published 14 Oct 19:45 · locked at kick-off
Aragua FC win21%Caracas FC win50%Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 20:30
Match timeline
All events
Aragua FCMINCaracas FCEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Aragua FC
Caracas FC
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026Positions of these teams
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caracas FC | 5 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 5 | 4 | 7 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Caracas FC a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 18%. We are 32 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 18% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aragua FC win | 21% | 56% | −35 |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | +3 |
| Caracas FC win | 50% | 18% | +32 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 50% | −13 |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 50% | −9 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | 72% | −9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 30% | −13 |
| Aragua FC or draw | 50% | 82% | −32 |
| Aragua FC clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Caracas FC clean sheet | 45% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2025Form · last six in Copa Venezuela
ARAGUA FC
CARACAS FC
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caracas FC | 5 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 |  Yaracuyanos FC | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 |  Fundación Lara Deportiva | 5 | -13 | 3 |
The competition's standings.