Xorazm v Pakhtakor prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

XorazmDrawPakhtakor

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Pakhtakor 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pakhtakor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Xorazm 21%, draw 24%, Pakhtakor 54%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Xorazm v PakhtakorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Xorazm win21%

Draw24%

Pakhtakor win54%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 26

VenueXorazm Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Xorazm

Pakhtakor

14Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

Last match: 23 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Pakhtakor	25	+19	53
15	Xorazm	24	−14	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pakhtakor winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Pakhtakor a 54% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.7, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Xorazm v Pakhtakor~~0.92 – 1.67

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 25 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 53~~15 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Xorazm win	21%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Pakhtakor win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Xorazm or draw	46%	–	–
Xorazm clean sheet	19%	–	–
Pakhtakor clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.8 12.4 10.3 5.8 2.5 1 7.0 11.5 9.4 5.2 2.2 2 3.3 5.3 4.3 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Xorazm down, Pakhtakor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,173 Super League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 195 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Xorazm at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Pakhtakor away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Xorazm, 1.67 for Pakhtakor. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~PAK 2–1 XOR · XOR 0–1 PAK · PAK 2–1 XOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 25 Aug

XORAZM

LLDLDD0–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–0

PAKHTAKOR

WWWWDL3–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi	25	+37	58
2	Pakhtakor	25	+19	53
3	Navbahor	24	+18	46
4	Nasaf	25	+14	41
5	Buxoro	25	+5	41
6	Olmaliq	24	+3	39
7	Lokomotiv	24	+9	39
8	Qizilqum	24	−6	33
9	Andijan	24	−3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	−3	30
11	Sogdiana	25	−7	29
12	Surkhon	25	−9	29
13	Bunyodkor	25	−15	26
14	Kokand-1912	24	−10	23
15	Xorazm	24	−14	23
16	Mash'al	25	−38	4