Xorazm v Buxoro prediction · Super League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with Xorazm just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Xorazm 38%, draw 28%, Buxoro 34%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Xorazm v BuxoroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · postponed, not graded

Xorazm win38%

Draw28%

Buxoro win34%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueXorazm Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Xorazm

Buxoro

4Days since last match3

Last match: 16 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

Last match: 17 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Buxoro	24	+5	40
15	Xorazm	24	−14	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · xorazm winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:22 · postponed, not graded

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Xorazm a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Xorazm v Buxoro~~1.24 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 24 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 40~~15 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Xorazm win

Published at 39%, 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Xorazm win	38%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Buxoro win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Xorazm or draw	66%	–	–
Xorazm clean sheet	32%	–	–
Buxoro clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.3 10.5 6.1 2.4 1 11.2 12.9 7.4 2.9 2 7.0 8.0 4.6 3 2.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Xorazm down, Buxoro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,169 Super League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 191 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Xorazm at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Buxoro away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Xorazm, 1.16 for Buxoro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BUX 1–1 XOR · BUX 1–2 XOR · BUX 1–1 XOR · XOR 1–4 BUX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 24 Aug

XORAZM

LLDLDD0–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–0

BUXORO

DLLLWW1–1 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi	24	+35	55
2	Pakhtakor	24	+21	53
3	Navbahor	24	+18	46
4	Buxoro	24	+5	40
5	Olmaliq	24	+3	39
6	Lokomotiv	24	+9	39
7	Nasaf	24	+13	38
8	Qizilqum	24	−6	33
9	Andijan	24	−3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	−3	30
11	Sogdiana	24	−6	29
12	Surkhon	24	−9	28
13	Kokand-1912	24	−10	23
14	Bunyodkor	24	−16	23
15	Xorazm	24	−14	23
16	Mash'al	24	−37	4