Sogdiana v Lokomotiv prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Sogdiana 2–3 Lokomotiv SOGDIANA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sogdiana win~~44%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.693

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.659

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sogdiana win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Sogdiana v Lokomotiv
2′Much as we predicted: Sogdiana was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–33
3′Much as we predicted: Sogdiana was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–24–33
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Sogdiana 1–0 Lokomotiv
28′⚽ GOAL · 29' Sogdiana 1–0 Lokomotiv
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Sogdiana 1–1 Lokomotiv
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Sogdiana 1–1 Lokomotiv
39′Lokomotiv ahead on 34′ through T. Abdukholikov. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–33–30
40′Lokomotiv ahead on 34′ through T. Abdukholikov. 1–1. 1–1 · 37–33–30
45′SECOND HALF Sogdiana 1–1 Lokomotiv
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Sogdiana 1–2 Lokomotiv · T. Abdukholikov
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Sogdiana 1–2 Lokomotiv
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sogdiana · On: A. Abdurashidov · Off: S. Sultonmurodov
51′⚽ GOAL · 48' Sogdiana 1–2 Lokomotiv · S. Mirzaev (assist T. Abdukholikov)
54′⚽ GOAL · 29' Sogdiana 1–2 Lokomotiv · B. Askarov
54′⚽ GOAL · 34' Sogdiana 1–2 Lokomotiv · T. Abdukholikov
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sogdiana · On: J. Kakhramonov · Off: B. Askarov
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sogdiana · On: S. Mavlonkulov · Off: S. Kamolov
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sogdiana · On: N. Soyibov · Off: J. Boltaboev
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sogdiana · On: A. Abdurashidov · Off: S. Sultonmurodov
54′⚽ GOAL · 48' Sogdiana 1–2 Lokomotiv · S. Mirzaev (assist T. Abdukholikov)
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Lokomotiv · On: S. Shodiboev · Off: B. Tupliev
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Lokomotiv · On: M. Reimov · Off: D. Turopov
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Sogdiana 2–2 Lokomotiv · S. Mirzaev
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Lokomotiv · On: S. Nurulloev · Off: J. Yakhshiboev
67′⚽ GOAL · 68' Sogdiana 2–2 Lokomotiv
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Lokomotiv
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Sogdiana 2–3 Lokomotiv · L. Doriev
80′⚽ GOAL · 81' Sogdiana 2–3 Lokomotiv
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Lokomotiv · On: N. Ivanov · Off: J. Nisic
FTFULL TIME Sogdiana 2–3 Lokomotiv
FTSogdiana 2–3 Lokomotiv · Sogdiana win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sogdiana win44%

Draw23%

Lokomotiv win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueSogdiana Sport Complex

RefereeG. Djuraev

Line-ups

Sogdiana

Lokomotiv

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sogdiana

Lokomotiv

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Lokomotiv	22	+8	35
10	Sogdiana	22	−5	28

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sogdiana

Formation not confirmed

27 M. Mitrovic

33 S. Sultonmurodov

3 I. Kobilov

2 Z. Dzhuraboev

13 F. Ivanovic

6 B. Askarov

17 O. Karimov

7 P. Micin

8 J. Boltaboev

50 S. Kamolov

14 L. Doriev

Coach · Ulugbek Bakaev

Substitutes

10 · J. Kakhramonov

22 · A. Abdurashidov

29 · A. Saidov

74 · B. Nadzhafaliev

49 · S. Jamolov

9 · D. Zajmovic

32 · N. Soyibov

28 · S. Mavlonkulov

77 · O. Nurmatov

Lokomotiv

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Kozlov

15 A. Susnjar

33 O. Zoteev

18 O. Kucherenko

28 S. Mukhammadiev

17 S. Mirzaev

45 J. Nisic

8 B. Tupliev

23 D. Turopov

99 J. Yakhshiboev

11 T. Abdukholikov

Coach · Mirko Jelicic

Substitutes

22 · S. Poyonov

61 · N. Ibraimov

14 · N. Ivanov

70 · M. Reimov

9 · S. Nurulloev

16 · D. Baklanov

7 · Q. Abrayev

26 · A. Yuldashev

10 · S. Shodiboev

Our number · sogdiana winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

44% The market40%

Us44%

~~Market~~40%

We make Sogdiana a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sogdiana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sogdiana win	44%	40%	+4
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Lokomotiv win	33%	34%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	61%	60%	+1
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	39%	0
Sogdiana or draw	67%	66%	+1
Sogdiana clean sheet	24%	–	–
Lokomotiv clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.3 6.2 4.5 2.2 1 7.3 10.3 7.5 3.7 2 6.1 8.8 6.4 3.1 3 3.5 5.0 3.6 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sogdiana down, Lokomotiv across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,159 Super League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 181 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.14 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sogdiana at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lokomotiv away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Sogdiana, 1.46 for Lokomotiv. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~LOK 3–1 SOG · SOG 2–0 LOK · LOK 1–2 SOG · SOG 2–2 LOK

Form · last six in Super League

SOGDIANA

WWLWDL3–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 5–2 · 0–0 · 1–2

LOKOMOTIV

LWWDWL1–2 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi	23	+33	52
2	Pakhtakor	23	+21	52
3	Navbahor	22	+18	44
4	Nasaf	23	+13	37
5	Buxoro	23	+4	37
6	Lokomotiv	22	+8	35
7	Olmaliq	22	+2	35
8	Dinamo Samarqand	23	−2	30
9	Andijan	23	−2	30
10	Sogdiana	22	−5	28
11	Surkhon	23	−9	27
12	Qizilqum	22	−10	27
13	Kokand-1912	23	−8	23
14	Bunyodkor	22	−13	22
15	Xorazm	23	−14	22
16	Mash'al	23	−36	4