Sogdiana v Buxoro prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SogdianaDrawBuxoro

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Sogdiana 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sogdiana are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sogdiana 48%, draw 24%, Buxoro 28%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Sogdiana v BuxoroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Sogdiana win48%

Draw24%

Buxoro win28%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 26

VenueSogdiana Sport Complex

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sogdiana

Buxoro

6Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

Last match: 23 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Buxoro	25	+5	41
11	Sogdiana	25	−7	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sogdiana winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Sogdiana a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sogdiana v Buxoro~~1.71 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 29 v 41~~11 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sogdiana win	48%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Buxoro win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Sogdiana or draw	72%	–	–
Sogdiana clean sheet	29%	–	–
Buxoro clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.4 6.4 4.1 1 8.7 11.0 6.9 2.9 2 7.5 9.2 5.8 2.5 3 4.3 5.3 3.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sogdiana down, Buxoro across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,173 Super League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 195 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sogdiana at home: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Buxoro away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Sogdiana, 1.26 for Buxoro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BUX 2–1 SOG · BUX 2–0 SOG · BUX 2–2 SOG · SOG 1–1 BUX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 5 Sept

SOGDIANA

WDLLDL5–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–2

BUXORO

LLLWWD2–3 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi	25	+37	58
2	Pakhtakor	25	+19	53
3	Navbahor	24	+18	46
4	Nasaf	25	+14	41
5	Buxoro	25	+5	41
6	Olmaliq	24	+3	39
7	Lokomotiv	24	+9	39
8	Qizilqum	24	−6	33
9	Andijan	24	−3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	−3	30
11	Sogdiana	25	−7	29
12	Surkhon	25	−9	29
13	Bunyodkor	25	−15	26
14	Kokand-1912	24	−10	23
15	Xorazm	24	−14	23
16	Mash'al	25	−38	4