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Qizilqum v Surkhon

Qizilqum

0–0Full time

Surkhon

Super League · SAT 10 OCT · Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Qizilqum 0–0 Surkhon QIZILQUM WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Qizilqum win~~37%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.724

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.743

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Qizilqum win at 37%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Qizilqum 37% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–31–33
2′KICK-OFF Qizilqum v Surkhon
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Qizilqum 0–0 Surkhon
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Qizilqum 1–0 Surkhon
24′A goal for Qizilqum on 20′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 33–37–30
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Qizilqum win 28%)
45′HALF-TIME Qizilqum 0–0 Surkhon
47′SECOND HALF Qizilqum 0–0 Surkhon
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Qizilqum win: 37% at kick-off, 26% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Surkhon · On: B. Uktamov · Off: D. Ramazonov
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Surkhon · On: S. Abdukhamidov · Off: F. Kodirov
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Qizilqum · On: R. Roziev · Off: O. Jurakuziev
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Qizilqum · On: R. Paparyga · Off: I. Kenzhaboev
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Qizilqum · On: Maykon Douglas · Off: S. Turopov
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Qizilqum · On: G. Chabradze · Off: F. Jumankuziev
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Surkhon · On: M. Musaxonov · Off: D. Tursunov
FTFULL TIME Qizilqum 0–0 Surkhon
FTQizilqum 0–0 Surkhon · Qizilqum win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Qizilqum win37%

Draw31%

Surkhon win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi

Referee · S. Nasibullayev

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Qizilqum

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Rakhmatov

44 G. Rizakulov

40 N. Nematkhonov

15 N. Kumburovic

77 D. Rahmatilloyev

31 J. Jigauri

9 S. Turopov

8 S. Rakhmatullaev

88 O. Jurakuziev

10 I. Kenzhaboev

7 F. Jumankuziev

Coach · Jamshid Saidov

Substitutes

18 · A. Abdugafforov

70 · Maykon Douglas

47 · R. Roziev

34 · G. Chabradze

23 · S. Shukurillaev

99 · K. Sayyotov

4 · I. Vakhobov

17 · A. Muzaffarov

97 · R. Paparyga

Surkhon

Formation not confirmed

25 O. Boymurodov

7 D. Tursunov

6 B. Shamsiev

26 B. Shukurullaev

66 B. Shaydulov

8 K. Sherbutaev

15 D. Ramazonov

14 T. Ashuboyev

19 F. Kodirov

21 T. Dzebniauri

11 R. Friday

Coach · Anwar Gafurov

Substitutes

39 · M. Mirusmonov

27 · M. Musaxonov

18 · B. Uktamov

10 · S. Abdullazhonov

23 · K. Yusupov

70 · S. Solijonov

17 · S. Abdukhamidov

86 · D. Merganov

31 · K. Ergashev

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Qizilqum

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Rakhmatov

44 G. Rizakulov

40 N. Nematkhonov

15 N. Kumburovic

77 D. Rahmatilloyev

31 J. Jigauri

9 S. Turopov

8 S. Rakhmatullaev

88 O. Jurakuziev

10 I. Kenzhaboev

7 F. Jumankuziev

Coach · Jamshid Saidov

Substitutes

18 · A. Abdugafforov

70 · Maykon Douglas

47 · R. Roziev

34 · G. Chabradze

23 · S. Shukurillaev

99 · K. Sayyotov

4 · I. Vakhobov

17 · A. Muzaffarov

97 · R. Paparyga

Surkhon

Formation not confirmed

25 O. Boymurodov

7 D. Tursunov

6 B. Shamsiev

26 B. Shukurullaev

66 B. Shaydulov

8 K. Sherbutaev

15 D. Ramazonov

14 T. Ashuboyev

19 F. Kodirov

21 T. Dzebniauri

11 R. Friday

Coach · Anwar Gafurov

Substitutes

39 · M. Mirusmonov

27 · M. Musaxonov

18 · B. Uktamov

10 · S. Abdullazhonov

23 · K. Yusupov

70 · S. Solijonov

17 · S. Abdukhamidov

86 · D. Merganov

31 · K. Ergashev

Our number · qizilqum winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

37% The market40%

Us37%

~~Market~~40%

We make Qizilqum a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · qizilqum win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Qizilqum win	37%	40%	−3
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Surkhon win	33%	30%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	32%	41%	−9
Both teams to score	40%	48%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	59%	66%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	15%	21%	−7
Qizilqum or draw	67%	70%	−3
Qizilqum clean sheet	38%	–	–
Surkhon clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 13.6 13.1 6.3 2.1 1 14.1 13.2 6.4 2.1 2 7.2 6.9 3.3 3 2.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Qizilqum down, Surkhon across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,158 Super League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 1.55 goals a meeting; 2 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Qizilqum at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Surkhon away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Qizilqum, 0.97 for Surkhon. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.55

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 11

~~Both scored~~3 of 11

~~Last meetings~~SUR 0–1 QIZ · SUR 0–0 QIZ · QIZ 2–0 SUR · SUR 1–0 QIZ

Form · last six in Super League

QIZILQUM

WLWWLW2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–1

SURKHON

LDDWLW1–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi	23	+33	52
2	Pakhtakor	23	+21	52
3	Navbahor	22	+18	44
4	Nasaf	23	+13	37
5	Buxoro	23	+4	37
6	Lokomotiv	22	+8	35
7	Olmaliq	22	+2	35
8	Dinamo Samarqand	23	−2	30
9	Andijan	23	−2	30
10	Sogdiana	22	−5	28
11	Surkhon	22	−9	26
12	Qizilqum	21	−10	26
13	Kokand-1912	23	−8	23
14	Bunyodkor	22	−13	22
15	Xorazm	23	−14	22
16	Mash'al	23	−36	4