Qizilqum v Lokomotiv prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

QizilqumDrawLokomotiv

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lokomotiv 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lokomotiv are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Qizilqum 33%, draw 27%, Lokomotiv 40%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Qizilqum v LokomotivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Qizilqum win33%

Draw27%

Lokomotiv win40%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueYoshlar Sport Majmuasi

RefereeT. Toxtasinov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Qizilqum

Lokomotiv

10Days since last match5

Last match: 15 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

Last match: 20 Oct · Cup (Uzbekistan)

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Lokomotiv	24	+9	39
8	Qizilqum	24	−6	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lokomotiv winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Lokomotiv a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Qizilqum v Lokomotiv~~1.18 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 26 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 33 v 39~~8 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Qizilqum win	33%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Lokomotiv win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Qizilqum or draw	60%	–	–
Qizilqum clean sheet	27%	–	–
Lokomotiv clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.4 10.7 7.2 3.2 1 9.5 12.6 8.3 3.7 2 5.6 7.4 4.9 2.2 3 2.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Qizilqum down, Lokomotiv across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,173 Super League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 195 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Qizilqum at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lokomotiv away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Qizilqum, 1.34 for Lokomotiv. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~LOK 1–0 QIZ · LOK 4–2 QIZ · LOK 0–1 QIZ · QIZ 0–0 LOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 26 Aug

QIZILQUM

WWLWDW1–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

LOKOMOTIV

WDWLWD4–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi	25	+37	58
2	Pakhtakor	25	+19	53
3	Navbahor	24	+18	46
4	Nasaf	25	+14	41
5	Buxoro	25	+5	41
6	Olmaliq	24	+3	39
7	Lokomotiv	24	+9	39
8	Qizilqum	24	−6	33
9	Andijan	24	−3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	−3	30
11	Sogdiana	25	−7	29
12	Surkhon	25	−9	29
13	Bunyodkor	25	−15	26
14	Kokand-1912	24	−10	23
15	Xorazm	24	−14	23
16	Mash'al	25	−38	4