Pakhtakor v Neftchi

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Pakhtakor win at 42%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Pakhtakor was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
3. 1′KICK-OFF Pakhtakor v Neftchi
4. 24′A goal for Pakhtakor on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
5. 24′We published Pakhtakor at 42%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
6. 24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Pakhtakor 1–0 Neftchi
7. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Pakhtakor win: 42% at kick-off, 69% now
8. 25′We published Pakhtakor at 42%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 70–20–10
10. 38′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Neftchi · On: S. Perica · Off: Z. Marusic
11. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Pakhtakor win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
12. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Pakhtakor
13. 45′HALF-TIME Pakhtakor 1–0 Neftchi
14. 46′SECOND HALF Pakhtakor 1–0 Neftchi
15. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Neftchi · On: A. Odilov · Off: M. Ubaydullaev
16. 51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Neftchi · On: A. Ismoilov · Off: N. Abduganiyev
17. 53′We published Pakhtakor at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
18. 56′Neftchi score on 56′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 30–46–24
19. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Pakhtakor 1–1 Neftchi
20. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Pakhtakor win: 42% at kick-off, 30% now
21. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Pakhtakor win 75%)
22. 57′We said Pakhtakor at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–47–24
23. 67′Neftchi find the net on 66′. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–76
24. 67′We said Pakhtakor at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
25. 67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Pakhtakor 1–2 Neftchi
26. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Pakhtakor win: 42% at kick-off, 4% now
27. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Neftchi win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 55%)
28. 68′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–19–77
29. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Pakhtakor win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
30. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Pakhtakor
31. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Neftchi · On: I. Yuldoshev · Off: K. Kouao
32. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Neftchi · On: Ratinho · Off: V. Jovovic
33. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Pakhtakor
34. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Z. Tahseen · Pakhtakor
35. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Pakhtakor · On: O. Bozorov · Off: D. Khamdamov
36. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Pakhtakor · On: K. Alizhonov · Off: B. Resan
37. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Pakhtakor · On: D. Abdullaev · Off: Z. Tahseen
38. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Pakhtakor · On: A. Hussein · Off: D. Saitov
39. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Pakhtakor
40. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 80' I. Alibaev · Neftchi
41. 89′A red card for Pakhtakor on 89′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 0–5–95
42. 89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Pakhtakor
43. 90′A goal for Neftchi on 90′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
44. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Pakhtakor 1–3 Neftchi
45. 91′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
46. FTFULL TIME Pakhtakor 1–3 Neftchi
47. FTPakhtakor 1–3 Neftchi · Pakhtakor win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.