Olmaliq v Navbahor prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Olmaliq 2–2 Navbahor OLMALIQ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olmaliq win~~39%

~~The market said~~25%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.831

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.856

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olmaliq win at 39%.
2′Much as we predicted: Olmaliq was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–36
2′Olmaliq find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 64–20–16
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Olmaliq win: 39% at kick-off, 64% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Olmaliq win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Olmaliq win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Olmaliq win: 39% at kick-off, 64% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Olmaliq win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Olmaliq win: 39% at kick-off, 64% now
18′We published Olmaliq at 39%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–21–13
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Olmaliq win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Olmaliq win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
19′Olmaliq ahead on 2′ through A. Mukimzhonov. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–21–13
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Olmaliq win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Olmaliq win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Navbahor
27′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Olmaliq
39′Much as we predicted: Olmaliq was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 33% now. 1–1 · 33–36–31
39′A goal for Navbahor on 40′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–36–31
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Olmaliq 1–1 Navbahor · A. Mukimzhonov
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Olmaliq win: 39% at kick-off, 33% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Olmaliq win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
39′⚽ GOAL · 40' Olmaliq 1–1 Navbahor
45′SECOND HALF Olmaliq 1–1 Navbahor
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Olmaliq · On: A. Kholmurodov · Off: I. Pesic
54′⚽ GOAL · 2' Olmaliq 1–1 Navbahor · A. Mukimzhonov (assist A. Sobirzhonov)
54′🟨 YELLOW · 23' A. Rakhimzhonov · Navbahor
54′🟨 YELLOW · 28' G. Papava · Olmaliq
54′⚽ GOAL · 40' Olmaliq 1–1 Navbahor · I. Mamatkazin (assist D. Kholmatov)
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Olmaliq · On: A. Kholmurodov · Off: I. Pesic
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Navbahor · On: V. Ilic · Off: J. Jaloliddinov
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Navbahor · On: M. Giyosov · Off: R. Jiyanov
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Olmaliq 2–1 Navbahor · I. Mamatkazin
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Olmaliq 2–1 Navbahor
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Olmaliq · On: K. Tursunkulov · Off: N. Abdurazzakov
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Navbahor · On: B. Teidi · Off: A. Rakhimzhonov
86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' Olmaliq
87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Olmaliq
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Olmaliq · On: E. Begimov · Off: S. Haghnazari
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Olmaliq · On: A. Sarimsakov · Off: A. Sentoku
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Olmaliq 2–2 Navbahor · N. Abdurazzakov
95′PENALTY MISSED · 96' Navbahor
95′⚽ GOAL · 96' Olmaliq 2–2 Navbahor
98′⚽ GOAL · 96' Olmaliq 2–1 Navbahor
102′🟨 YELLOW · 103' Olmaliq
103′⚽ GOAL · 103' Olmaliq 2–2 Navbahor · N. Abdurazzakov
103′⚽ GOAL · 104' Olmaliq 2–2 Navbahor
FTFULL TIME Olmaliq 2–2 Navbahor
FTOlmaliq 2–2 Navbahor · Olmaliq win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Olmaliq win39%

Draw26%

Navbahor win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueOKMK Sport Majmuasi

RefereeT. Tukhtasinov

Line-ups

Olmaliq

Navbahor

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Olmaliq

Navbahor

21Days since last match24

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Navbahor	22	+18	44
7	Olmaliq	22	+2	35

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Olmaliq

Formation not confirmed

23 K. Abdunabiev

8 A. Turdialiev

44 A. Karimov

6 A. Ulmasaliev

19 A. Mukimzhonov

5 G. Papava

88 S. Haghnazari

28 A. Sentoku

17 N. Abdurazzakov

10 A. Sobirzhonov

77 I. Pesic

Coach · Mirdzhalol Kasymov

Substitutes

1 · M. Ubaydullayev

4 · M. Kosimov

9 · A. Kholmurodov

13 · E. Begimov

21 · K. Tursunkulov

22 · S. Akhrorov

26 · F. Abdullayev

27 · U. Kojic

30 · A. Sarimsakov

Navbahor

Formation not confirmed

1 U. Yusupov

4 I. Mamatkazin

5 D. Komilov

6 S. Abdurakhmonov

7 R. Jiyanov

8 D. Kholmatov

11 K. Norchaev

21 A. Rakhimzhonov

22 U. Adkhamzoda

30 J. Jaloliddinov

55 M. Khamraliev

Coach · Timur Kapadze

Substitutes

16 · S. Yuldashev

2 · S. Mirsaidov

13 · B. Teidi

28 · J. Kojo

77 · M. Usmonov

3 · Z. Rakhimjonov

17 · M. Giyosov

44 · A. Chichinadze

23 · V. Ilic

Our number · olmaliq winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

39% The market25%

Us39%

~~Market~~25%

We make Olmaliq a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 25%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · olmaliq win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 25% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olmaliq win	39%	25%	+14
Draw	26%	26%	0
Navbahor win	36%	50%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	51%	51%	−1
Both teams to score	54%	54%	0
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	31%	−2
Olmaliq or draw	64%	50%	+14
Olmaliq clean sheet	27%	–	–
Navbahor clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.8 8.9 5.9 2.6 1 9.3 12.0 7.9 3.5 2 6.4 8.3 5.5 2.4 3 3.0 3.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olmaliq down, Navbahor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,159 Super League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 181 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.73 goals a meeting; 8 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olmaliq at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Navbahor away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Olmaliq, 1.33 for Navbahor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.73

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 11

~~Both scored~~8 of 11

~~Last meetings~~NAV 2–3 OLM · OLM 3–1 NAV · NAV 3–0 OLM · OLM 2–1 NAV

Form · last six in Super League

OLMALIQ

LLDWLW0–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–1

NAVBAHOR

WWWDWW4–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi	23	+33	52
2	Pakhtakor	23	+21	52
3	Navbahor	22	+18	44
4	Nasaf	23	+13	37
5	Buxoro	23	+4	37
6	Lokomotiv	22	+8	35
7	Olmaliq	22	+2	35
8	Dinamo Samarqand	23	−2	30
9	Andijan	23	−2	30
10	Sogdiana	22	−5	28
11	Surkhon	23	−9	27
12	Qizilqum	22	−10	27
13	Kokand-1912	23	−8	23
14	Bunyodkor	22	−13	22
15	Xorazm	23	−14	22
16	Mash'al	23	−36	4