Olmaliq v Kokand-1912 prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

OlmaliqDrawKokand-1912

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Olmaliq 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olmaliq are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Olmaliq 56%, draw 24%, Kokand-1912 20%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Olmaliq v Kokand-1912Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Olmaliq win56%

Draw24%

Kokand-1912 win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueOKMK Sport Majmuasi

RefereeD. Rahmonov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Olmaliq

Kokand-1912

5Days since last match9

Last match: 20 Oct · Cup (Uzbekistan)

Last match: 16 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Olmaliq	24	+3	39
14	Kokand-1912	24	−10	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olmaliq winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Olmaliq a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olmaliq v Kokand-1912~~1.70 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 24 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 39 v 23~~5 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olmaliq win	56%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Kokand-1912 win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Olmaliq or draw	80%	–	–
Olmaliq clean sheet	41%	–	–
Kokand-1912 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 7.8 6.7 3.0 1 12.7 11.3 5.0 2 10.8 9.4 4.2 3 6.1 5.3 2.4 4 2.7 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olmaliq down, Kokand-1912 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,173 Super League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 195 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.86 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olmaliq at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kokand-1912 away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Olmaliq, 0.89 for Kokand-1912. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.86

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~KOK 1–4 OLM · OLM 0–1 KOK · KOK 1–3 OLM · KOK 0–0 OLM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 24 Aug

OLMALIQ

DWLWDW0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

KOKAND-1912

DDLLWL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi	25	+37	58
2	Pakhtakor	25	+19	53
3	Navbahor	24	+18	46
4	Buxoro	25	+5	41
5	Olmaliq	24	+3	39
6	Lokomotiv	24	+9	39
7	Nasaf	24	+13	38
8	Qizilqum	24	−6	33
9	Andijan	24	−3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	−3	30
11	Sogdiana	24	−6	29
12	Surkhon	25	−9	29
13	Bunyodkor	25	−15	26
14	Kokand-1912	24	−10	23
15	Xorazm	24	−14	23
16	Mash'al	25	−38	4