Navbahor v Pakhtakor prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Navbahor 1–1 Pakhtakor PAKHTAKOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Pakhtakor win~~38%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.832

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.784

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pakhtakor win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pakhtakor 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 37–26–38
1′KICK-OFF Navbahor v Pakhtakor
8′Little has changed for our model: Pakhtakor 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 36–27–37
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Pakhtakor
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Pakhtakor
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Pakhtakor win 32%)
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Navbahor
44′A goal for Pakhtakor on 43′. 0–0 · 30–38–31
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Navbahor 0–1 Pakhtakor
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Pakhtakor win: 38% at kick-off, 70% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Pakhtakor win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 22%)
45′We said Pakhtakor at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–22–70
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 9–22–70
45′HALF-TIME Navbahor 0–1 Pakhtakor
45′SECOND HALF Navbahor 0–1 Pakhtakor
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Pakhtakor
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Navbahor · On: U. Adkhamzoda · Off: D. Komilov
58′PENALTY MISSED · 57' Navbahor
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Navbahor
60′We said Pakhtakor at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Pakhtakor win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Navbahor · On: J. Jaloliddinov · Off: V. Ilic
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Navbahor · On: J. Kojo · Off: K. Norchaev Corrected
70′We said Pakhtakor at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Pakhtakor · On: B. Resan · Off: D. Khamdamov
70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Pakhtakor · On: A. Hussein · Off: S. Chinedu
77′We said Pakhtakor at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Pakhtakor win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
82′We said Pakhtakor at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Pakhtakor
84′We said Pakhtakor at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–84–8
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Navbahor 1–1 Pakhtakor
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Pakhtakor win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Pakhtakor win 8%)
85′A goal for Navbahor on 84′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 7–85–7
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Pakhtakor win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Pakhtakor · On: M. Karimov · Off: D. Saitov Corrected
85′🟨 YELLOW · 77' O. Bozorov · Pakhtakor
90′We said Pakhtakor at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Navbahor · On: A. Rakhimzhonov · Off: B. Teidi
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Navbahor
FTFULL TIME Navbahor 1–1 Pakhtakor
FTNavbahor 1–1 Pakhtakor · Pakhtakor win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Pakhtakor just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Navbahor 37%, draw 26%, Pakhtakor 38%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Navbahor v PakhtakorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Navbahor win37%

Draw26%

Pakhtakor win38%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueMarkaziy Stadium

RefereeI. Tantashev

Line-ups

Navbahor

Pakhtakor

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Navbahor

Pakhtakor

6Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

Last match: 12 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Pakhtakor	23	+21	52
3	Navbahor	23	+18	45

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Navbahor

Formation not confirmed

1 U. Yusupov

55 M. Khamraliev

4 I. Mamatkazin

34 G. Jgerenaia

5 D. Komilov

8 D. Kholmatov

13 B. Teidi

6 S. Abdurakhmonov

23 V. Ilic

11 K. Norchaev

7 R. Jiyanov

Coach · Timur Kapadze

Substitutes

21 · A. Rakhimzhonov

30 · J. Jaloliddinov

22 · U. Adkhamzoda

77 · M. Usmonov

28 · J. Kojo

44 · A. Chichinadze

2 · S. Mirsaidov

16 · S. Yuldashev

17 · M. Giyosov

Pakhtakor

Formation not confirmed

12 V. Nazarov

8 D. Saitov

4 Z. Tahseen

10 A. Mozgovoy

55 M. Abdumazhidov

34 S. Nasrullaev

17 D. Khamdamov

27 S. Sobirkhuzhaev

23 A. Buriev

50 Flamarion

90 S. Chinedu

Coach · Kamoliddin Tadzhiev

Substitutes

77 · O. Bozorov

35 · S. Kuvvatov

22 · M. Karimov

20 · D. Abdullaev

44 · D. Ermanov

33 · K. Saydaliev

29 · A. Hussein

9 · I. Ibrokhimov

21 · B. Resan

Our number · pakhtakor winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:29 · locked at kick-off

38% The market31%

Us38%

~~Market~~31%

We make Pakhtakor a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Navbahor v Pakhtakor~~1.35 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 21 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 45 v 52~~3 v 2

~~The market · Pakhtakor win~~31% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pakhtakor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Navbahor win	37%	41%	−4
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Pakhtakor win	38%	31%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	51%	49%	+2
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	29%	0
Navbahor or draw	62%	69%	−7
Navbahor clean sheet	26%	–	–
Pakhtakor clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.7 9.1 6.2 2.9 1 9.0 12.0 8.2 3.8 2 6.0 8.1 5.5 2.5 3 2.7 3.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Navbahor down, Pakhtakor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,166 Super League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 188 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Navbahor at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Pakhtakor away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Navbahor, 1.37 for Pakhtakor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PAK 0–2 NAV · NAV 1–1 PAK · PAK 2–0 NAV · NAV 5–2 PAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 21 Aug

NAVBAHOR

WWDWWD1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 2–2

PAKHTAKOR

DDWWWW0–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi	24	+35	55
2	Pakhtakor	23	+21	52
3	Navbahor	23	+18	45
4	Olmaliq	24	+3	39
5	Lokomotiv	23	+9	38
6	Nasaf	23	+13	37
7	Buxoro	23	+4	37
8	Qizilqum	24	−6	33
9	Andijan	24	−3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	23	−2	30
11	Sogdiana	24	−6	29
12	Surkhon	24	−9	28
13	Kokand-1912	24	−10	23
14	Bunyodkor	24	−16	23
15	Xorazm	24	−14	23
16	Mash'al	24	−37	4