Nasaf v Sogdiana prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Nasaf 2–1 Sogdiana NASAF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nasaf win~~60%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.241

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.206

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nasaf win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nasaf was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
1′KICK-OFF Nasaf v Sogdiana
7′Nasaf find the net on 7′. 0–0 · 58–24–18
8′We published Nasaf at 60%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Nasaf 1–0 Sogdiana
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Nasaf win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 82–13–5
36′A goal for Nasaf on 36′. 1–0 · 82–14–4
36′We published Nasaf at 60%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Nasaf 2–0 Sogdiana
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Nasaf win: 60% at kick-off, 96% now
45′HALF-TIME Nasaf 2–0 Sogdiana
46′SECOND HALF Nasaf 2–0 Sogdiana
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sogdiana · On: Z. Urinboev · Off: S. Mavlonkulov
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sogdiana · On: J. Boltaboev · Off: B. Askarov
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sogdiana · On: J. Kakhramonov · Off: O. Nurmatov
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Nasaf · On: S. Mukhitdinov · Off: S. Bakhromov
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Nasaf · On: A. Shala · Off: A. Gulomov
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sogdiana · On: D. Zajmovic · Off: P. Micin
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sogdiana · On: S. Jamolov · Off: B. Dzhumatov
79′We published Nasaf at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Nasaf win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Nasaf · On: Z. Abdirakhmatov · Off: P. Ghudushauri
86′Sogdiana find the net on 85′. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 96–4–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 85' Nasaf 2–1 Sogdiana
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Nasaf win: 60% at kick-off, 96% now
90′Full time, 2–1. We called Nasaf at 60% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Nasaf
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Nasaf
FTFULL TIME Nasaf 2–1 Sogdiana
FTNasaf 2–1 Sogdiana · Nasaf win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nasaf are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nasaf 60%, draw 22%, Sogdiana 18%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Nasaf v SogdianaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Nasaf win60%

Draw22%

Sogdiana win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueMarkaziy Stadium

RefereeS. Nasibullayev

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nasaf

Sogdiana

7Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

Last match: 20 Oct · Cup (Uzbekistan)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Nasaf	24	+13	38
11	Sogdiana	24	−6	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nasaf winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

60% The market63%

Us60%

~~Market~~63%

We make Nasaf a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nasaf v Sogdiana~~1.89 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 38 v 29~~7 v 11

~~The market · Nasaf win~~63% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nasaf win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nasaf win	60%	63%	−3
Draw	22%	22%	0
Sogdiana win	18%	15%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	53%	57%	−4
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	37%	−6
Nasaf or draw	82%	85%	−3
Nasaf clean sheet	41%	–	–
Sogdiana clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%

0123450 6.4 5.6 2.6 1 11.5 10.5 4.7 2 10.8 9.6 4.4 3 6.8 6.1 2.8 4 3.3 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nasaf down, Sogdiana across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,172 Super League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 194 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nasaf at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sogdiana away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Nasaf, 0.91 for Sogdiana. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SOG 0–2 NAS · SOG 1–2 NAS · NAS 1–0 SOG · NAS 0–1 SOG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 23 Aug

NASAF

LWWWWD0–1 · 6–2 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

SOGDIANA

LWDLLD0–3 · 5–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi	25	+37	58
2	Pakhtakor	25	+19	53
3	Navbahor	24	+18	46
4	Buxoro	25	+5	41
5	Olmaliq	24	+3	39
6	Lokomotiv	24	+9	39
7	Nasaf	24	+13	38
8	Qizilqum	24	−6	33
9	Andijan	24	−3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	−3	30
11	Sogdiana	24	−6	29
12	Surkhon	25	−9	29
13	Bunyodkor	25	−15	26
14	Kokand-1912	24	−10	23
15	Xorazm	24	−14	23
16	Mash'al	25	−38	4