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Nasaf v Dinamo Samarqand

Nasaf

2–1Full time

Dinamo Samarqand

Super League · FRI 9 OCT · Markaziy Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 18:03

Nasaf 2–1 Dinamo Samarqand NASAF WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nasaf win~~56%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.285

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.293

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Nasaf win56%

Draw23%

Dinamo Samarqand win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 15:30

Venue · Markaziy Stadium

Referee · A. Risqullaev

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Nasaf

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Nematov

8 Z. Abdirakhmatov

5 G. Gaybullaev

92 U. Eshmurodov

4 A. Komilov

15 O. Rustamov

6 S. Bakhromov

14 S. Mukhitdinov

70 A. Gulomov

7 A. Shala

10 B. Abdikholikov

Coach · Ruzikul Berdiev

Substitutes

16 · S. Murodboyev

77 · P. Ghudushauri

2 · A. Davronov

17 · M. Rakhmatov

27 · Y. Berdirahmonov

76 · Z. Sadullayev

23 · D. Murtazoyev

32 · Q. Xushvaqtov

20 · Y. Otubanjo

Dinamo Samarqand

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Nemanov

2 A. Radayev

3 M. Stefan

20 J. Jumaboev

17 S. Mustafoev

16 A. Dumbuya

24 A. Khudoyberdiev

37 F. Abdurakhmonov

30 H. Hajdarevic

10 A. Khozhimirzaev

8 A. Amonov

Coach · Vadim Abramov

Substitutes

77 · B. Oblakulov

26 · M. Stanojevic

15 · R. Yuldashev

44 · A. Khaydarov

4 · N. Tukhtasinov

19 · T. Avanesyan

25 · O. Ormonjonov

71 · S. Karimov

21 · J. Abdusalomov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Nasaf

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Nematov

8 Z. Abdirakhmatov

5 G. Gaybullaev

92 U. Eshmurodov

4 A. Komilov

15 O. Rustamov

6 S. Bakhromov

14 S. Mukhitdinov

70 A. Gulomov

7 A. Shala

10 B. Abdikholikov

Coach · Ruzikul Berdiev

Substitutes

16 · S. Murodboyev

77 · P. Ghudushauri

2 · A. Davronov

17 · M. Rakhmatov

27 · Y. Berdirahmonov

76 · Z. Sadullayev

23 · D. Murtazoyev

32 · Q. Xushvaqtov

20 · Y. Otubanjo

Dinamo Samarqand

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Nemanov

2 A. Radayev

3 M. Stefan

20 J. Jumaboev

17 S. Mustafoev

16 A. Dumbuya

24 A. Khudoyberdiev

37 F. Abdurakhmonov

30 H. Hajdarevic

10 A. Khozhimirzaev

8 A. Amonov

Coach · Vadim Abramov

Substitutes

77 · B. Oblakulov

26 · M. Stanojevic

15 · R. Yuldashev

44 · A. Khaydarov

4 · N. Tukhtasinov

19 · T. Avanesyan

25 · O. Ormonjonov

71 · S. Karimov

21 · J. Abdusalomov

Our number · nasaf winPublished 9 Oct 15:22

56% The market56%

Us56%

~~Market~~56%

We make Nasaf a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nasaf win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nasaf win	56%	56%	+1
Draw	23%	25%	−1
Dinamo Samarqand win	20%	19%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	49%	53%	−3
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	33%	−5
Nasaf or draw	80%	81%	−1
Nasaf clean sheet	40%	–	–
Dinamo Samarqand clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%

0123450 7.1 6.6 3.0 1 12.3 11.0 5.1 2 10.5 9.5 4.4 3 6.1 5.5 2.5 4 2.7 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nasaf down, Dinamo Samarqand across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,154 Super League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 176 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.29 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nasaf at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Samarqand away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Nasaf, 0.92 for Dinamo Samarqand. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.29

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~DIN 1–1 NAS · NAS 0–0 DIN · DIN 2–2 NAS · DIN 1–2 NAS

Form · last six in Super League

NASAF

LLLWWW1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 6–2 · 3–0 · 4–1

DINAMO SAMARQAND

DWDDWL2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi	23	+33	52
2	Pakhtakor	22	+19	49
3	Navbahor	22	+18	44
4	Lokomotiv	22	+8	35
5	Olmaliq	22	+2	35
6	Nasaf	22	+12	34
7	Buxoro	22	+3	34
8	Dinamo Samarqand	22	−1	30
9	Andijan	22	−1	30
10	Sogdiana	22	−5	28
11	Surkhon	22	−9	26
12	Qizilqum	21	−10	26
13	Bunyodkor	21	−11	22
14	Xorazm	23	−14	22
15	Kokand-1912	22	−11	20
16	Mash'al	22	−33	4