Lokomotiv v Nasaf

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Nasaf win at 45%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Nasaf 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 29–26–45
3. 1′KICK-OFF Lokomotiv v Nasaf
4. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Nasaf win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
5. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Nasaf win 35%)
6. 45′HALF-TIME Lokomotiv 0–0 Nasaf
7. 46′SECOND HALF Lokomotiv 0–0 Nasaf
8. 48′Little has changed for our model: Nasaf 45% before kick-off, 34% now. 0–0 · 24–42–34
9. 50′We said Nasaf at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 24–43–33
10. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 22–46–31
11. 59′We said Nasaf at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 21–50–29
12. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Nasaf win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
13. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Nasaf · On: G. Gaybullaev · Off: A. Komilov
14. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Nasaf · On: M. Rakhmatov · Off: S. Bakhromov
15. 68′We said Nasaf at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 18–59–24
16. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Lokomotiv · On: B. Tupliev · Off: O. Zoteev
17. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Lokomotiv · On: S. Nurulloev · Off: N. Popovich Corrected
18. 74′We said Nasaf at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 14–67–19
19. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Nasaf win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
20. 79′We said Nasaf at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 11–75–14
21. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Nasaf · On: Y. Otubanjo · Off: A. Shala
22. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Nasaf · On: A. Gulomov · Off: P. Ghudushauri
23. 84′We said Nasaf at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–85–9
24. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Lokomotiv · On: M. Reimov · Off: S. Mirzaev
25. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Lokomotiv · On: S. Shodiboev · Off: T. Abdukholikov
26. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Nasaf win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
27. 91′We said Nasaf at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
28. FTFULL TIME Lokomotiv 0–0 Nasaf
29. FTLokomotiv 0–0 Nasaf · Nasaf win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.