Kokand-1912 v Qizilqum prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kokand-1912DrawQizilqum

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Kokand-1912 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kokand-1912 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kokand-1912 40%, draw 29%, Qizilqum 31%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Kokand-1912 v QizilqumBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Kokand-1912 win40%

Draw29%

Qizilqum win31%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kokand-1912

Qizilqum

14Days since last match15

Last match: 16 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

Last match: 15 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Qizilqum	24	−6	33
14	Kokand-1912	24	−10	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kokand-1912 winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Kokand-1912 a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kokand-1912 v Qizilqum~~1.17 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 24 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 33~~14 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kokand-1912 win	40%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Qizilqum win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Kokand-1912 or draw	69%	–	–
Kokand-1912 clean sheet	37%	–	–
Qizilqum clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 11.8 11.4 5.7 1 13.3 13.3 6.5 2.2 2 7.8 7.7 3.8 3 3.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kokand-1912 down, Qizilqum across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,172 Super League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 194 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kokand-1912 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Qizilqum away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Kokand-1912, 0.99 for Qizilqum. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~QIZ 2–1 KOK · KOK 2–1 QIZ · KOK 2–1 QIZ · QIZ 1–0 KOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 24 Aug

KOKAND-1912

DDLLWL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–4

QIZILQUM

WWLWDW1–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi	25	+37	58
2	Pakhtakor	25	+19	53
3	Navbahor	24	+18	46
4	Buxoro	25	+5	41
5	Olmaliq	24	+3	39
6	Lokomotiv	24	+9	39
7	Nasaf	24	+13	38
8	Qizilqum	24	−6	33
9	Andijan	24	−3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	−3	30
11	Sogdiana	24	−6	29
12	Surkhon	25	−9	29
13	Bunyodkor	25	−15	26
14	Kokand-1912	24	−10	23
15	Xorazm	24	−14	23
16	Mash'al	25	−38	4