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Kokand-1912 v Neftchi

Kokand-1912

2–4Full time

Neftchi

Super League · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 17:31

Kokand-1912 2–4 Neftchi NEFTCHI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Neftchi win~~55%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.304

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.261

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Neftchi win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Neftchi was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 20–25–55
1′KICK-OFF Kokand-1912 v Neftchi
12′Kokand-1912 find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 47–27–26
12′We said Neftchi at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–0 · 47–27–26
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Kokand-1912 1–0 Neftchi
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Neftchi win: 55% at kick-off, 26% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Kokand-1912 win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Neftchi win 26%)
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Neftchi win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
14′A goal for Neftchi on 14′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 20–28–52
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Kokand-1912 1–1 Neftchi
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Neftchi win: 55% at kick-off, 52% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Neftchi win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Kokand-1912 win 20%)
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Neftchi win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Kokand-1912
41′We said Neftchi at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 18–38–43
45′HALF-TIME Kokand-1912 1–1 Neftchi
46′SECOND HALF Kokand-1912 1–1 Neftchi
48′Neftchi find the net on 48′. 1–1 · 18–42–40
49′We published Neftchi at 55%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–2 · 3–14–83
49′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–14–83
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Kokand-1912 1–2 Neftchi
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Neftchi win: 55% at kick-off, 83% now
50′A goal for Kokand-1912 on 50′. 1–2 · 3–14–83
51′We said Neftchi at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 2–2 · 17–44–39
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Kokand-1912 2–2 Neftchi · S. Akromov
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Neftchi win: 55% at kick-off, 39% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Neftchi win 39%)
52′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 17–45–38
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Neftchi win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
58′Neftchi find the net on 58′. 2–2 · 16–50–35
58′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 2–14–84
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Kokand-1912 2–3 Neftchi
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Neftchi win: 55% at kick-off, 84% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Neftchi win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
59′🟥 RED CARD · 59' Neftchi
60′A red card for Neftchi on 59′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–3 · 2–13–85
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Neftchi win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
61′We published Neftchi at 55%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–3 · 2–13–85
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Kokand-1912 · On: A. Toshtemirov · Off: Z. Khakimov
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Kokand-1912 · On: J. Hasanov · Off: T. Tabatadze
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Neftchi · On: A. Ismoilov · Off: A. Jumaev
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Neftchi · On: A. Gofurov · Off: V. Jovovic
75′We published Neftchi at 55%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–3 · 1–9–90
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Neftchi · On: S. Perica · Off: Z. Marusic
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Neftchi · On: I. Yuldoshev · Off: K. Giyosov
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Kokand-1912 · On: S. Mahmuxojiyev · Off: S. Akromov
84′We published Neftchi at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Neftchi win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Neftchi · On: B. Toshmirzaev · Off: A. Odilov
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kokand-1912 · On: A. Uktamov · Off: M. Khasanov Corrected
87′A goal for Neftchi on 86′. 2–3 · 0–4–96
87′We published Neftchi at 55%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–4 · 0–0–100
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kokand-1912 · On: M. Fazliddinov · Off: S. Gvazava
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Kokand-1912 2–4 Neftchi
88′6 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–0–100
90′Full time, 2–4. We called Neftchi at 55% — that one lands. 2–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Kokand-1912 2–4 Neftchi
FTKokand-1912 2–4 Neftchi · Neftchi win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Neftchi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kokand-1912 20%, draw 25%, Neftchi 55%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Kokand-1912 v NeftchiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Kokand-1912 win20%

Draw25%

Neftchi win55%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 24

RefereeG. Djuraev

Line-ups

Kokand-1912

Neftchi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kokand-1912

Neftchi

7Days since last match4

Last match: 9 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

Last match: 12 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Neftchi	23	+33	52
13	Kokand-1912	23	−8	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kokand-1912

Formation not confirmed

13 R. Davronov

20 I. Malikdzhonov

5 J. Yakubov

15 Z. Khakimov

19 S. Akromov

99 M. Khasanov

8 S. Gvazava

21 G. Gulyamov

10 S. Gadoev

22 T. Tabatadze

71 E. Yulchiev

Coach · Andrey Shipilov

Substitutes

46 · H. Xojayev

4 · A. Toshtemirov

6 · A. Salimov

44 · A. Giorgadze

9 · J. Hasanov

7 · J. Sidikov

18 · M. Fazliddinov

90 · A. Uktamov

70 · S. Mahmuxojiyev

Neftchi

Formation not confirmed

45 A. Turaev

52 K. Kouao

15 N. Abduganiyev

21 M. Ubaydullaev

34 F. Sayfiev

8 V. Jovovic

77 Ratinho

9 K. Giyosov

11 A. Jumaev

32 Z. Marusic

22 A. Odilov

Coach · Islom Ismoilov

Substitutes

16 · I. Shokirov

2 · I. Pulatov

6 · I. Yuldoshev

7 · A. Ismoilov

18 · S. Perica

20 · A. Gofurov

27 · N. Sarsenbaev

30 · R. Fomin

71 · B. Toshmirzaev

Our number · neftchi winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

55% The market58%

Us55%

~~Market~~58%

We make Neftchi a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kokand-1912 v Neftchi~~0.83 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 18 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 52~~13 v 2

~~The market · Neftchi win~~58% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Neftchi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kokand-1912 win	20%	18%	+2
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Neftchi win	55%	58%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	43%	50%	−7
Both teams to score	44%	49%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	29%	−6
Kokand-1912 or draw	45%	42%	+3
Kokand-1912 clean sheet	21%	–	–
Neftchi clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.2%

0123450 9.0 14.2 11.1 5.9 2.4 1 7.6 11.5 9.1 4.8 2 3.2 4.9 3.8 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kokand-1912 down, Neftchi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,163 Super League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 185 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kokand-1912 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Neftchi away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.83 goals for Kokand-1912, 1.59 for Neftchi. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~NEF 4–0 KOK · KOK 1–2 NEF · NEF 0–0 KOK · KOK 3–3 NEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 18 Aug

KOKAND-1912

WDDLLW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–0

NEFTCHI

LWLWWD1–4 · 3–0 · 2–6 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pakhtakor	23	+21	52
2	Neftchi	23	+33	52
3	Navbahor	23	+18	45
4	Olmaliq	24	+3	39
5	Lokomotiv	23	+9	38
6	Nasaf	23	+13	37
7	Buxoro	23	+4	37
8	Qizilqum	24	−6	33
9	Andijan	24	−3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	23	−2	30
11	Sogdiana	23	−6	28
12	Surkhon	23	−9	27
13	Kokand-1912	23	−8	23
14	Bunyodkor	23	−16	22
15	Xorazm	23	−14	22
16	Mash'al	24	−37	4