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Kokand-1912 v Mash'al

Kokand-1912

3–0Full time

Mash'al

Super League · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 17:04

Kokand-1912 3–0 Mash'al KOKAND-1912 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kokand-1912 win~~52%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.350

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.145

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kokand-1912 win52%

Draw28%

Mash'al win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 14:30

Referee · A. Shukrullayev

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Kokand-1912

Formation not confirmed

13 R. Davronov

6 A. Salimov

5 J. Yakubov

15 Z. Khakimov

19 S. Akromov

99 M. Khasanov

21 G. Gulyamov

8 S. Gvazava

10 S. Gadoev

7 J. Sidikov

71 E. Yulchiev

Coach · Andrey Shipilov

Substitutes

90 · A. Uktamov

11 · S. Nimely

4 · A. Toshtemirov

44 · A. Giorgadze

70 · S. Mahmuxojiyev

22 · T. Tabatadze

20 · I. Malikdzhonov

46 · H. Xojayev

18 · M. Fazliddinov

Mash'al

Formation not confirmed

35 D. Tukhtaboev

2 Z. Akramov

67 O. Abdirakhimov

70 A. Choriyev

19 T. Tukhtasinov

5 K. Tozhidinov

88 A. Rakhimov

8 S. Abduraymov

9 I. Ganikhonov

11 M. Jurabaev

28 E. Ismoilov

Coach · Sergey Lushchan

Substitutes

66 · I. Nusratov

6 · J. Ubaydullaev

22 · M. Muydinov

73 · V. Rusanov

63 · P. Bureev

36 · J. Abdulazizov

76 · F. Jovliyev

10 · K. Murtazoev

24 · I. Ifeanyi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kokand-1912

Formation not confirmed

13 R. Davronov

6 A. Salimov

5 J. Yakubov

15 Z. Khakimov

19 S. Akromov

99 M. Khasanov

21 G. Gulyamov

8 S. Gvazava

10 S. Gadoev

7 J. Sidikov

71 E. Yulchiev

Coach · Andrey Shipilov

Substitutes

90 · A. Uktamov

11 · S. Nimely

4 · A. Toshtemirov

44 · A. Giorgadze

70 · S. Mahmuxojiyev

22 · T. Tabatadze

20 · I. Malikdzhonov

46 · H. Xojayev

18 · M. Fazliddinov

Mash'al

Formation not confirmed

35 D. Tukhtaboev

2 Z. Akramov

67 O. Abdirakhimov

70 A. Choriyev

19 T. Tukhtasinov

5 K. Tozhidinov

88 A. Rakhimov

8 S. Abduraymov

9 I. Ganikhonov

11 M. Jurabaev

28 E. Ismoilov

Coach · Sergey Lushchan

Substitutes

66 · I. Nusratov

6 · J. Ubaydullaev

22 · M. Muydinov

73 · V. Rusanov

63 · P. Bureev

36 · J. Abdulazizov

76 · F. Jovliyev

10 · K. Murtazoev

24 · I. Ifeanyi

Our number · kokand-1912 winPublished 9 Oct 14:32

52% The market69%

Us52%

~~Market~~69%

We make Kokand-1912 a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kokand-1912 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 71% to 69% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kokand-1912 win	52%	69%	−18
Draw	28%	20%	+7
Mash'al win	21%	10%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	36%	49%	−13
Both teams to score	39%	41%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	62%	72%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	17%	29%	−12
Kokand-1912 or draw	79%	90%	−10
Kokand-1912 clean sheet	48%	–	–
Mash'al clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.5%

0123450 12.1 9.0 3.4 1 16.5 12.0 4.6 2 11.2 8.3 3.1 3 5.2 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kokand-1912 down, Mash'al across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,154 Super League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 176 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kokand-1912 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mash'al away: 0.67 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Kokand-1912, 0.75 for Mash'al. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MAS 1–0 KOK · MAS 1–0 KOK · KOK 0–4 MAS · KOK 2–2 MAS

Form · last six in Super League

KOKAND-1912

WWDDLL2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

MASH'AL

LLLLLL0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–5 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi	23	+33	52
2	Pakhtakor	22	+19	49
3	Navbahor	22	+18	44
4	Lokomotiv	22	+8	35
5	Olmaliq	22	+2	35
6	Nasaf	22	+12	34
7	Buxoro	22	+3	34
8	Dinamo Samarqand	22	−1	30
9	Andijan	22	−1	30
10	Sogdiana	22	−5	28
11	Surkhon	22	−9	26
12	Qizilqum	21	−10	26
13	Bunyodkor	21	−11	22
14	Xorazm	23	−14	22
15	Kokand-1912	22	−11	20
16	Mash'al	22	−33	4