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Buxoro v Surkhon

Buxoro

0–0Full time

Surkhon

Super League · FRI 23 OCT · Buxoro FA Stadioni

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:02

Buxoro 0–0 Surkhon BUXORO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Buxoro win~~40%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.746

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.808

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Buxoro win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Buxoro was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
1′KICK-OFF Buxoro v Surkhon
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Buxoro win 36%)
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Buxoro
45′SECOND HALF Buxoro 0–0 Surkhon
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Buxoro win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
47′HALF-TIME Buxoro 0–0 Surkhon
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Buxoro
53′We said Buxoro at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–50–22
53′🟥 RED CARD · 53' Buxoro
54′A red card for Buxoro on 54′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 27–51–22
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Buxoro · On: S. Jurabekov · Off: T. Mamasidikov
60′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Surkhon · On: R. Friday · Off: S. Abdullazhonov
61′We said Buxoro at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Surkhon · On: S. Abdukhamidov · Off: D. Tursunov
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Buxoro win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
69′We said Buxoro at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Buxoro · On: N. Kacharava · Off: A. Joraboev
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Buxoro · On: A. Kayumov · Off: J. Ruziev
76′We said Buxoro at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Buxoro win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
82′We said Buxoro at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
87′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Surkhon · On: D. Ramazonov · Off: T. Dzebniauri
88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Buxoro · On: D. Begic · Off: V. Rodic
90′We said Buxoro at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
91′We published Buxoro at 40%. Our model now makes it 97%. 1–0 · 97–2–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Buxoro 1–0 Surkhon
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Buxoro win: 40% at kick-off, 97% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Buxoro win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 94%)
92′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+2' Buxoro
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Buxoro win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Buxoro win 97%)
FTFULL TIME Buxoro 0–0 Surkhon
FTBuxoro 0–0 Surkhon · Buxoro win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Buxoro are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Buxoro 40%, draw 30%, Surkhon 30%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Buxoro v SurkhonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Buxoro win40%

Draw30%

Surkhon win30%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueBuxoro FA Stadioni

RefereeM. Jasur

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Buxoro

Surkhon

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

Last match: 16 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Buxoro	24	+5	40
12	Surkhon	24	−9	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · buxoro winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market47%

Us40%

~~Market~~47%

We make Buxoro a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Buxoro v Surkhon~~1.16 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 24 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 40 v 28~~4 v 12

~~The market · Buxoro win~~47% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Buxoro win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Buxoro win	40%	47%	−7
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Surkhon win	30%	26%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	35%	49%	−14
Both teams to score	42%	53%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	62%	72%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	16%	29%	−13
Buxoro or draw	70%	74%	−4
Buxoro clean sheet	39%	–	–
Surkhon clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 12.4 11.5 5.5 1 14.0 13.2 6.3 2.0 2 8.1 7.6 3.6 3 3.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Buxoro down, Surkhon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,170 Super League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Buxoro at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Surkhon away: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Buxoro, 0.95 for Surkhon. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SUR 3–1 BUX · BUX 0–1 SUR · SUR 0–0 BUX · BUX 1–1 SUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 24 Aug

BUXORO

DLLLWW1–1 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–1

SURKHON

DWLWDD0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi	24	+35	55
2	Pakhtakor	24	+21	53
3	Navbahor	24	+18	46
4	Buxoro	24	+5	40
5	Olmaliq	24	+3	39
6	Lokomotiv	24	+9	39
7	Nasaf	24	+13	38
8	Qizilqum	24	−6	33
9	Andijan	24	−3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	−3	30
11	Sogdiana	24	−6	29
12	Surkhon	24	−9	28
13	Bunyodkor	25	−15	26
14	Kokand-1912	24	−10	23
15	Xorazm	24	−14	23
16	Mash'al	25	−38	4