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Buxoro v Andijan

Buxoro

3–2Full time

Andijan

Super League · FRI 9 OCT · Buxoro FA Stadioni

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 17:33

Buxoro 3–2 Andijan BUXORO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Buxoro win~~41%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.525

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.575

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Buxoro win41%

Draw26%

Andijan win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Buxoro FA Stadioni

Referee · R. Choriyev

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Buxoro

Formation not confirmed

12 U. Khamroev

97 S. Jurabekov

5 S. Kulmatov

42 K. Todorov

27 M. Yuldoshev

18 O. Rajabov

25 S. Esanov

7 K. Mukhtorov

78 V. Rodic

22 A. Joraboev

11 T. Mamasidikov

Coach · Aleksandr Khomyakov

Substitutes

19 · A. Umarov

14 · I. Baratov

90 · A. Xikmatov

2 · V. Filipovic

9 · N. Kacharava

77 · A. Kayumov

17 · J. Ruziev

1 · S. Abdullaev

88 · D. Begic

Andijan

Formation not confirmed

19 A. Potapov

22 U. Ismonaliev

2 O. Abdumazhidov

20 I. Tukhtakhuzhaev

14 A. Komilov

18 D. Temirov

99 R. Turdimurodov

11 K. Iminov

7 P. Kholdorkhonov

27 M. Boakye

33 D. Abdumannopov

Coach · Islam Akhmedov

Substitutes

10 · D. Ceran

88 · S. Yorkinboev

8 · S. Komilov

28 · B. Sulaymonov

23 · F. Ubaydullaev

66 · A. Rejabboyev

1 · E. Adkhamov

5 · A. Gulomov

70 · K. Karimov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Buxoro

Formation not confirmed

12 U. Khamroev

97 S. Jurabekov

5 S. Kulmatov

42 K. Todorov

27 M. Yuldoshev

18 O. Rajabov

25 S. Esanov

7 K. Mukhtorov

78 V. Rodic

22 A. Joraboev

11 T. Mamasidikov

Coach · Aleksandr Khomyakov

Substitutes

19 · A. Umarov

14 · I. Baratov

90 · A. Xikmatov

2 · V. Filipovic

9 · N. Kacharava

77 · A. Kayumov

17 · J. Ruziev

1 · S. Abdullaev

88 · D. Begic

Andijan

Formation not confirmed

19 A. Potapov

22 U. Ismonaliev

2 O. Abdumazhidov

20 I. Tukhtakhuzhaev

14 A. Komilov

18 D. Temirov

99 R. Turdimurodov

11 K. Iminov

7 P. Kholdorkhonov

27 M. Boakye

33 D. Abdumannopov

Coach · Islam Akhmedov

Substitutes

10 · D. Ceran

88 · S. Yorkinboev

8 · S. Komilov

28 · B. Sulaymonov

23 · F. Ubaydullaev

66 · A. Rejabboyev

1 · E. Adkhamov

5 · A. Gulomov

70 · K. Karimov

Our number · buxoro winPublished 9 Oct 15:04

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make Buxoro a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · buxoro win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Buxoro win	41%	38%	+3
Draw	26%	30%	−4
Andijan win	33%	32%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	49%	44%	+5
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	68%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	27%	24%	+3
Buxoro or draw	67%	68%	−1
Buxoro clean sheet	29%	–	–
Andijan clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.2 8.9 5.5 2.3 1 10.1 12.1 7.5 3.1 2 7.0 8.5 5.3 2.2 3 3.3 4.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Buxoro down, Andijan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,154 Super League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 176 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.60 goals a meeting; 0 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Buxoro at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Andijan away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Buxoro, 1.24 for Andijan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~AND 2–0 BUX · AND 1–1 BUX · BUX 1–1 AND · AND 1–0 BUX

Form · last six in Super League

BUXORO

WWDLLL2–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 1–2

ANDIJAN

LWWLWL0–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi	23	+33	52
2	Pakhtakor	22	+19	49
3	Navbahor	22	+18	44
4	Lokomotiv	22	+8	35
5	Olmaliq	22	+2	35
6	Nasaf	22	+12	34
7	Buxoro	22	+3	34
8	Dinamo Samarqand	22	−1	30
9	Andijan	22	−1	30
10	Sogdiana	22	−5	28
11	Surkhon	22	−9	26
12	Qizilqum	21	−10	26
13	Bunyodkor	21	−11	22
14	Xorazm	23	−14	22
15	Kokand-1912	22	−11	20
16	Mash'al	22	−33	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Buxoro

Andijan

Match statistics

Line-ups

Buxoro

Andijan

Head to head

Form · last six in Super League

The table