Andijan v Qizilqum prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 17:30

Andijan 0–1 Qizilqum ANDIJAN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Andijan win~~47%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.826

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.948

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Andijan win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Andijan v Qizilqum
2′Little has changed for our model: Andijan 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–27
39′Qizilqum find the net on 39′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–25–61
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Andijan 0–1 Qizilqum
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Andijan win: 47% at kick-off, 13% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Qizilqum win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Andijan win 13%)
40′We said Andijan at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–25–62
41′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–62
43′Qizilqum ahead on 38′ through O. Jurakuziev. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–25–63
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Andijan
45′HALF-TIME Andijan 0–1 Qizilqum
46′SECOND HALF Andijan 0–1 Qizilqum
52′We said Andijan at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Andijan win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Andijan
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Qizilqum · On: F. Jumankuziev · Off: O. Jurakuziev
63′🟨 YELLOW · 60' N. Calasan · Andijan
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Andijan · On: M. Toirov · Off: D. Temirov
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Andijan
67′We said Andijan at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Qizilqum
82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Qizilqum · On: S. Shukurillaev · Off: J. Jigauri
83′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Andijan · On: D. Ceran · Off: M. Boakye
84′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Qizilqum · On: A. Abdugafforov · Off: I. Kenzhaboev
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Qizilqum
85′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Andijan · On: A. Gulomov · Off: A. Komilov
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Qizilqum · On: B. Bozorov · Off: R. Roziev
86′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Andijan · On: A. Turgunboev · Off: A. Komilov Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Qizilqum · On: G. Chabradze · Off: S. Rakhmatullaev
87′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Andijan · On: B. Sulaymonov · Off: P. Kholdorkhonov
88′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Andijan · On: A. Turgunboev · Off: D. Abdumannopov
98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+8' Qizilqum
98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+8' Andijan
FTFULL TIME Andijan 0–1 Qizilqum
FTAndijan 0–1 Qizilqum · Andijan win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Andijan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Andijan 47%, draw 26%, Qizilqum 27%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Andijan v QizilqumBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Andijan win47%

Draw26%

Qizilqum win27%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueBobur Arena

RefereeA. Rahimqulov

Line-ups

Andijan

Qizilqum

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Andijan

Qizilqum

6Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Qizilqum	23	−7	30
10	Andijan	23	−2	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Andijan

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Adkhamov

14 A. Komilov

15 N. Calasan

2 O. Abdumazhidov

22 U. Ismonaliev

23 D. Abdumannopov

18 D. Temirov

7 P. Kholdorkhonov

11 K. Iminov

99 R. Turdimurodov

27 M. Boakye

Coach · Islam Akhmedov

Substitutes

19 · A. Potapov

20 · I. Tukhtakhuzhaev

5 · A. Gulomov

8 · S. Komilov

10 · D. Ceran

28 · B. Sulaymonov

17 · A. Turgunboev

70 · K. Karimov

26 · M. Toirov

Qizilqum

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Rakhmatov

79 D. Rakhmatilloev

15 N. Kumburovic

40 N. Nematkhonov

44 G. Rizakulov

31 J. Jigauri

70 Maykon Douglas

10 I. Kenzhaboev

8 S. Rakhmatullaev

47 R. Roziev

88 O. Jurakuziev

Coach · Jamshid Saidov

Substitutes

23 · S. Shukurillaev

99 · K. Sayyotov

20 · B. Bozorov

34 · G. Chabradze

4 · I. Vakhobov

7 · F. Jumankuziev

9 · S. Turopov

18 · A. Abdugafforov

67 · M. Qoldoshev

Our number · andijan winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

47% The market51%

Us47%

~~Market~~51%

We make Andijan a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Andijan v Qizilqum~~1.49 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 18 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 30 v 30~~10 v 9

~~The market · Andijan win~~51% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Andijan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Andijan win	47%	51%	−4
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Qizilqum win	27%	22%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	47%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	49%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	70%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	28%	−3
Andijan or draw	73%	78%	−5
Andijan clean sheet	35%	–	–
Qizilqum clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.1 8.4 4.4 1 11.9 12.1 6.4 2.3 2 8.7 9.0 4.7 3 4.4 4.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Andijan down, Qizilqum across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,161 Super League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.6% of games this season, across 183 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Andijan at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Qizilqum away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Andijan, 1.05 for Qizilqum. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~QIZ 2–1 AND · QIZ 2–1 AND · AND 1–1 QIZ · AND 0–0 QIZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 18 Aug

ANDIJAN

WWLWLL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 2–3

QIZILQUM

LWWLWD1–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pakhtakor	23	+21	52
2	Neftchi	23	+33	52
3	Navbahor	23	+18	45
4	Lokomotiv	23	+9	38
5	Nasaf	23	+13	37
6	Buxoro	23	+4	37
7	Olmaliq	23	+2	36
8	Dinamo Samarqand	23	−2	30
9	Qizilqum	23	−7	30
10	Andijan	23	−2	30
11	Sogdiana	23	−6	28
12	Surkhon	23	−9	27
13	Kokand-1912	23	−8	23
14	Bunyodkor	23	−16	22
15	Xorazm	23	−14	22
16	Mash'al	23	−36	4