Yaypan v Kattaqurgon prediction · Pro League A

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Yaypan 0–1 Kattaqurgon KATTAQURGON WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kattaqurgon win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.394

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kattaqurgon win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kattaqurgon was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 27–25–49
1′KICK-OFF Yaypan v Kattaqurgon
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Kattaqurgon win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME Yaypan 0–0 Kattaqurgon
46′SECOND HALF Yaypan 0–0 Kattaqurgon
48′We said Kattaqurgon at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 23–40–37
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Kattaqurgon win 39%)
55′We said Kattaqurgon at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 21–44–34
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 21–44–34
64′We said Kattaqurgon at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 19–52–29
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Kattaqurgon win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
71′We said Kattaqurgon at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–61–24
75′Kattaqurgon find the net on 75′. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Yaypan 0–1 Kattaqurgon
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Kattaqurgon win: 49% at kick-off, 87% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Kattaqurgon win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 66%)
76′We published Kattaqurgon at 49%. Our model now makes it 87%. 0–1 · 1–12–87
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Kattaqurgon win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
80′We published Kattaqurgon at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
87′We published Kattaqurgon at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Kattaqurgon win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Yaypan 0–1 Kattaqurgon
FTYaypan 0–1 Kattaqurgon · Kattaqurgon win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kattaqurgon are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yaypan 27%, draw 25%, Kattaqurgon 49%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Yaypan v KattaqurgonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Yaypan win27%

Draw25%

Kattaqurgon win49%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yaypan

Kattaqurgon

4Days since last match6

Last match: 20 Oct · Pro League A

Last match: 18 Oct · Pro League A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Kattaqurgon	22	+7	37
10	Yaypan	23	−16	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kattaqurgon winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Kattaqurgon a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yaypan v Kattaqurgon~~1.13 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 27 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 25 v 37~~10 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kattaqurgon win

Published at 47%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yaypan win	27%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Kattaqurgon win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Yaypan or draw	51%	–	–
Yaypan clean sheet	20%	–	–
Kattaqurgon clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.6 10.3 8.3 4.6 1 7.2 11.5 9.2 5.0 2.1 2 4.1 6.5 5.2 2.8 3 2.5 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yaypan down, Kattaqurgon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 327 Pro League A matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yaypan at home: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Kattaqurgon away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Yaypan, 1.63 for Kattaqurgon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KAT 2–1 YAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 27 Aug

YAYPAN

LDLLWL1–4 · 0–0 · 2–5 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–4

KATTAQURGON

LLWWD0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 4–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	23	+35	58
2	Metalourg	23	+34	47
3	Shortan	23	+17	46
4	Gazalkent	23	+16	41
5	FarDu	23	+6	40
6	Lochin	23	+8	39
7	Kattaqurgon	22	+7	37
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	22	+15	36
9	Respublika FA	23	−2	29
10	Yaypan	23	−16	25
11	Jayxun	23	−8	24
12	Pakhtakor II	23	−33	13
13	BuxDu	23	−34	13
14	Qiziriq	23	−45	4