Shortan v Aral prediction · Pro League A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ShortanDrawAral

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Shortan 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Shortan just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Shortan 37%, draw 28%, Aral 35%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Shortan v AralBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Shortan win37%

Draw28%

Aral win35%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueStadion Guzor

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shortan

Aral

10Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · Pro League A

Last match: 18 Oct · Pro League A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shortan winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Shortan a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shortan v Aral~~1.19 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 46 v 58~~3 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shortan win	37%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Aral win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Shortan or draw	65%	–	–
Shortan clean sheet	31%	–	–
Aral clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.6 11.0 6.4 2.6 1 11.2 13.0 7.6 3.0 2 6.7 7.7 4.5 3 2.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shortan down, Aral across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 327 Pro League A matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shortan at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Aral away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Shortan, 1.17 for Aral. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ARA 3–1 SHO · SHO 4–1 ARA · ARA 2–1 SHO · SHO 4–0 ARA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 6 Sept

SHORTAN

WWWWDL4–1 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

ARAL

DWWWW1–1 · 2–0 · 5–2 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	23	+35	58
2	Metalourg	23	+34	47
3	Shortan	23	+17	46
4	Gazalkent	23	+16	41
5	Kattaqurgon	23	+8	40
6	FarDu	23	+6	40
7	Olimpik-Mobiuz	23	+18	39
8	Lochin	23	+8	39
9	Respublika FA	23	−2	29
10	Yaypan	24	−17	25
11	Jayxun	23	−8	24
12	Pakhtakor II	23	−33	13
13	BuxDu	23	−34	13
14	Qiziriq	24	−48	4