Respublika FA v Pakhtakor II prediction · Pro League A

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30

Respublika FA 0–2 Pakhtakor II RESPUBLIKA FA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Respublika FA win~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.156

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Respublika FA win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Respublika FA was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–20–16
1′KICK-OFF Respublika FA v Pakhtakor II
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Respublika FA win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
40′We said Respublika FA at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 52%. 0–0 · 52–31–17
45′HALF-TIME Respublika FA 0–1 Pakhtakor II
46′45′: A. Shukhratov on the scoresheet for Pakhtakor II, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 21–29–50
46′We said Respublika FA at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–29–50
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Respublika FA 0–1 Pakhtakor II · A. Shukhratov (penalty)
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Respublika FA win: 64% at kick-off, 21% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Pakhtakor II win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Respublika FA win 50%)
46′SECOND HALF Respublika FA 0–1 Pakhtakor II
49′We said Respublika FA at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–29–52
58′We said Respublika FA at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–57
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Respublika FA win: 64% at kick-off, 14% now
62′Pakhtakor II find the net on 62′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Respublika FA 0–2 Pakhtakor II
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Respublika FA win: 64% at kick-off, 3% now
63′We said Respublika FA at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–9–89
64′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–2 · 2–8–89
FTFULL TIME Respublika FA 0–2 Pakhtakor II
FTRespublika FA 0–2 Pakhtakor II · Respublika FA win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Respublika FA are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Respublika FA 64%, draw 20%, Pakhtakor II 16%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Respublika FA v Pakhtakor IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Respublika FA win64%

Draw20%

Pakhtakor II win16%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Respublika FA

Pakhtakor II

5Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Pro League A

Last match: 13 Oct · Pro League A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Respublika FA	22	0	29
13	Pakhtakor II	22	−35	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · respublika fa winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Respublika FA a 64% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.0, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Respublika FA v Pakhtakor II~~2.17 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 29 v 10~~9 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Respublika FA win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Respublika FA win	64%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Pakhtakor II win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Respublika FA or draw	84%	–	–
Respublika FA clean sheet	39%	–	–
Pakhtakor II clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.1%

0123450 4.7 4.4 2.1 1 9.6 9.1 4.4 2 10.1 9.5 4.6 3 7.3 6.8 3.3 4 4.0 3.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Respublika FA down, Pakhtakor II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 326 Pro League A matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Respublika FA at home: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Pakhtakor II away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for Respublika FA, 0.96 for Pakhtakor II. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~PAK 0–3 RES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 28 Aug

RESPUBLIKA FA

WLWWWD3–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–2

PAKHTAKOR II

WLLLLL3–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	23	+35	58
2	Metalourg	23	+34	47
3	Shortan	23	+17	46
4	Gazalkent	23	+16	41
5	FarDu	23	+6	40
6	Lochin	23	+8	39
7	Kattaqurgon	22	+7	37
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	22	+15	36
9	Respublika FA	22	0	29
10	Yaypan	23	−16	25
11	Jayxun	23	−8	24
12	BuxDu	23	−34	13
13	Pakhtakor II	22	−35	10
14	Qiziriq	23	−45	4