Respublika FA v Olimpik-Mobiuz prediction · Pro League A

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 14:17

Respublika FA 2–2 Olimpik-Mobiuz OLIMPIK-MOBIUZ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olimpik-Mobiuz win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.874

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olimpik-Mobiuz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Respublika FA 30%, draw 24%, Olimpik-Mobiuz 46%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Respublika FA v Olimpik-MobiuzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Respublika FA win30%

Draw24%

Olimpik-Mobiuz win46%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Respublika FA

Olimpik-Mobiuz

8Days since last match4

Last match: 8 Oct · Pro League A

Last match: 12 Oct · Pro League A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	20	+13	32
9	Respublika FA	21	0	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olimpik-mobiuz winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Olimpik-Mobiuz a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Respublika FA v Olimpik-Mobiuz~~1.28 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 14 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 28 v 32~~9 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Respublika FA win	30%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Olimpik-Mobiuz win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Respublika FA or draw	54%	–	–
Respublika FA clean sheet	20%	–	–
Olimpik-Mobiuz clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.7 8.7 7.3 4.0 1 6.8 11.2 9.0 5.0 2.1 2 4.4 7.1 5.8 3.2 3 3.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Respublika FA down, Olimpik-Mobiuz across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 320 Pro League A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 149 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Respublika FA at home: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Olimpik-Mobiuz away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Respublika FA, 1.66 for Olimpik-Mobiuz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~OLI 2–1 RES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 14 Aug

RESPUBLIKA FA

LWLWWW1–3 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1

OLIMPIK-MOBIUZ

WWLWDL1–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	22	+33	55
2	Shortan	22	+18	46
3	Metalourg	22	+33	44
4	FarDu	22	+7	40
5	Gazalkent	22	+15	38
6	Lochin	22	+8	38
7	Kattaqurgon	21	+7	36
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	20	+13	32
9	Respublika FA	21	0	28
10	Yaypan	22	−14	25
11	Jayxun	22	−6	24
12	Pakhtakor II	22	−35	10
13	BuxDu	22	−37	10
14	Qiziriq	22	−42	4