Qiziriq v BuxDu prediction · Pro League A

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Qiziriq are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Qiziriq 41%, draw 24%, BuxDu 35%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Qiziriq v BuxDuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · postponed, not graded

Qiziriq win41%

Draw24%

BuxDu win35%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Qiziriq

BuxDu

27Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Sept · Pro League A

Last match: 13 Oct · Pro League A

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	BuxDu	22	−37	10
14	Qiziriq	22	−42	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · qiziriq winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 19 Oct 04:12 · postponed, not graded

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make Qiziriq a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Qiziriq v BuxDu~~1.58 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 15 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 4 v 10~~14 v 13

~~The market · Qiziriq win~~38% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Qiziriq win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Qiziriq win	41%	38%	+3
Draw	24%	23%	+1
BuxDu win	35%	38%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	58%	64%	−6
Both teams to score	60%	65%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	42%	−6
Qiziriq or draw	65%	62%	+3
Qiziriq clean sheet	24%	–	–
BuxDu clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.2 7.0 5.1 2.5 1 7.6 11.0 7.8 3.8 2 6.0 8.4 6.1 3.0 3 3.2 4.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Qiziriq down, BuxDu across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 324 Pro League A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.5% of games this season, across 153 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Qiziriq at home: 0.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). BuxDu away: 0.67 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Qiziriq, 1.45 for BuxDu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BUX 2–0 QIZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 15 Aug

QIZIRIQ

LLLLLL1–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–4

BUXDU

LLLLLL1–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–6 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	23	+35	58
2	Shortan	23	+17	46
3	Metalourg	22	+33	44
4	Gazalkent	23	+16	41
5	FarDu	22	+7	40
6	Lochin	23	+8	39
7	Kattaqurgon	22	+7	37
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	21	+13	33
9	Respublika FA	22	0	29
10	Yaypan	22	−14	25
11	Jayxun	23	−8	24
12	Pakhtakor II	22	−35	10
13	BuxDu	22	−37	10
14	Qiziriq	22	−42	4