Pakhtakor II v BuxDu prediction · Pro League A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Pakhtakor IIDrawBuxDu

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Pakhtakor II 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pakhtakor II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pakhtakor II 46%, draw 23%, BuxDu 31%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Pakhtakor II v BuxDuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pakhtakor II win46%

Draw23%

BuxDu win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pakhtakor II

BuxDu

4Days since last match12

Last match: 21 Oct · Pro League A

Last match: 13 Oct · Pro League A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Pakhtakor II	23	−33	13
13	BuxDu	23	−34	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pakhtakor ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Pakhtakor II a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pakhtakor II v BuxDu~~1.72 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 7 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W0 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 13 v 13~~12 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pakhtakor II win

Published at 44%, 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pakhtakor II win	46%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
BuxDu win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Pakhtakor II or draw	69%	–	–
Pakhtakor II clean sheet	26%	–	–
BuxDu clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.8 6.4 4.3 1 8.1 10.5 7.1 3.3 2 6.8 8.9 6.0 2.8 3 3.9 5.2 3.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pakhtakor II down, BuxDu across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 328 Pro League A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 157 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pakhtakor II at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). BuxDu away: 0.67 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Pakhtakor II, 1.36 for BuxDu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BUX 2–0 PAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 7 Sept

PAKHTAKOR II

LLLLLW0–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–0

BUXDU

LLLLL0–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–6 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	23	+35	58
2	Metalourg	23	+34	47
3	Shortan	23	+17	46
4	Gazalkent	23	+16	41
5	Kattaqurgon	23	+8	40
6	FarDu	23	+6	40
7	Olimpik-Mobiuz	23	+18	39
8	Lochin	23	+8	39
9	Respublika FA	23	−2	29
10	Yaypan	24	−17	25
11	Jayxun	23	−8	24
12	Pakhtakor II	23	−33	13
13	BuxDu	23	−34	13
14	Qiziriq	24	−48	4