Pakhtakor II v Aral prediction · Pro League A

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:00

Pakhtakor II 1–2 Aral ARAL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aral win~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.109

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aral win at 73%.
1′Much as we predicted: Aral was 73% before kick-off and our model makes it 74% now. 0–0 · 9–17–74
1′KICK-OFF Pakhtakor II v Aral
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Pakhtakor II 0–1 Aral
6′4′ and it is 0–1: Aral have scored. 0–1 · 2–7–90
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Aral win: 73% at kick-off, 90% now
8′We published Aral at 73%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 2–7–90
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Pakhtakor II 0–2 Aral
23′Aral ahead on 21′ through N. Sheripov. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Aral win: 73% at kick-off, 98% now
25′We published Aral at 73%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
35′⚽ GOAL · 4' Pakhtakor II 0–2 Aral · Z. Muxtorov
35′⚽ GOAL · 21' Pakhtakor II 0–2 Aral · E. Kozlov
36′⚽ GOAL · 4' Pakhtakor II 0–2 Aral · Z. Muxtorov
36′⚽ GOAL · 21' Pakhtakor II 0–2 Aral · E. Kozlov
45′HALF-TIME Pakhtakor II 0–2 Aral
46′SECOND HALF Pakhtakor II 0–2 Aral
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Pakhtakor II 1–2 Aral
FTFULL TIME Pakhtakor II 1–2 Aral
FTPakhtakor II 1–2 Aral · Aral win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

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The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 13:24 · locked at kick-off

Pakhtakor II win10%

Draw17%

Aral win73%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pakhtakor II

Aral

5Days since last match22

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	20	+29	49
12	Pakhtakor II	21	−34	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aral winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 13:24 · locked at kick-off

73% The market–

Us73%

We make Aral a 73% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–2.3, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pakhtakor II win	10%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Aral win	73%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Pakhtakor II or draw	27%	–	–
Pakhtakor II clean sheet	10%	–	–
Aral clean sheet	50%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 12.9%

0123450 5.1 11.3 12.9 10.0 6.0 2.91 3.5 7.9 8.9 6.8 4.0 2 2.8 3.2 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pakhtakor II down, Aral across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 317 Pro League A matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 146 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pakhtakor II at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Aral away: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.70 goals for Pakhtakor II, 2.34 for Aral. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ARA 3–0 PAK

Form · last six in Pro League A

PAKHTAKOR II

LWLLLL0–2 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–3

ARAL

WLWDWW2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 5–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	20	+29	49
2	Shortan	21	+18	45
3	Metalourg	20	+30	40
4	FarDu	22	+7	40
5	Gazalkent	22	+15	38
6	Lochin	22	+8	38
7	Kattaqurgon	20	+10	36
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	20	+13	32
9	Respublika FA	20	−3	25
10	Jayxun	22	−6	24
11	Yaypan	21	−15	22
12	Pakhtakor II	21	−34	10
13	BuxDu	21	−36	10
14	Qiziriq	20	−36	4