Olimpik-Mobiuz v Yaypan prediction · Pro League A

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 13:30

Olimpik-Mobiuz 4–2 Yaypan OLIMPIK-MOBIUZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olimpik-Mobiuz win~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.170

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olimpik-Mobiuz win at 66%.
1′KICK-OFF Olimpik-Mobiuz v Yaypan
2′Little has changed for our model: Olimpik-Mobiuz 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–19–15
19′A goal for Olimpik-Mobiuz on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–11–5
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Olimpik-Mobiuz 1–0 Yaypan
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 66% at kick-off, 84% now
20′We said Olimpik-Mobiuz at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–5
23′Yaypan score on 23′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 61–24–16
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Olimpik-Mobiuz 1–1 Yaypan
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 66% at kick-off, 61% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
40′We said Olimpik-Mobiuz at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–30–16
45′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 52–32–16
45′HALF-TIME Olimpik-Mobiuz 1–1 Yaypan
46′SECOND HALF Olimpik-Mobiuz 1–1 Yaypan
49′Olimpik-Mobiuz find the net on 48′. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–13–3
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Olimpik-Mobiuz 2–1 Yaypan
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 66% at kick-off, 84% now
50′A goal for Yaypan on 50′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 49–35–16
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Olimpik-Mobiuz 2–2 Yaypan
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 66% at kick-off, 49% now
51′We said Olimpik-Mobiuz at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 2–2 · 49–36–15
52′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 48–36–15
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 66% at kick-off, 46% now
56′Olimpik-Mobiuz score on 56′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 85–12–3
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Olimpik-Mobiuz 3–2 Yaypan
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 66% at kick-off, 85% now
57′We said Olimpik-Mobiuz at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–12–2
58′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 85–12–2
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
75′We said Olimpik-Mobiuz at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 3–2 · 90–10–1
77′Olimpik-Mobiuz find the net on 76′. 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
77′We said Olimpik-Mobiuz at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 4–2 · 99–1–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Olimpik-Mobiuz 4–2 Yaypan
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 66% at kick-off, 99% now
78′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 99–1–0
80′We said Olimpik-Mobiuz at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Olimpik-Mobiuz 4–2 Yaypan
FTOlimpik-Mobiuz 4–2 Yaypan · Olimpik-Mobiuz win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olimpik-Mobiuz are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Olimpik-Mobiuz 66%, draw 18%, Yaypan 15%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Olimpik-Mobiuz v YaypanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Olimpik-Mobiuz win66%

Draw18%

Yaypan win15%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Olimpik-Mobiuz

Yaypan

4Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Pro League A

Last match: 13 Oct · Pro League A

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	21	+13	33
10	Yaypan	22	−14	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olimpik-mobiuz winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Olimpik-Mobiuz a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.0, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olimpik-Mobiuz v Yaypan~~2.29 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 20 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 33 v 25~~8 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olimpik-Mobiuz win	66%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Yaypan win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Olimpik-Mobiuz or draw	85%	–	–
Olimpik-Mobiuz clean sheet	39%	–	–
Yaypan clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%

0123450 4.1 3.9 1 8.9 8.5 4.2 2 10.0 9.4 4.5 3 7.6 7.1 3.4 4 4.5 4.1 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Olimpik-Mobiuz down, Yaypan across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 325 Pro League A matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 7.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olimpik-Mobiuz at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Yaypan away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.29 goals for Olimpik-Mobiuz, 0.96 for Yaypan. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~7.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~YAY 1–6 OLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 20 Aug

OLIMPIK-MOBIUZ

WLWDLD2–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

YAYPAN

LLDLLW1–3 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 2–5 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	23	+35	58
2	Metalourg	23	+34	47
3	Shortan	23	+17	46
4	Gazalkent	23	+16	41
5	FarDu	23	+6	40
6	Lochin	23	+8	39
7	Kattaqurgon	22	+7	37
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	21	+13	33
9	Respublika FA	22	0	29
10	Yaypan	22	−14	25
11	Jayxun	23	−8	24
12	BuxDu	23	−34	13
13	Pakhtakor II	22	−35	10
14	Qiziriq	23	−45	4