Metalourg v Shortan prediction · Pro League A

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 14:44

Metalourg 1–1 Shortan METALOURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Metalourg win~~43%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.837

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.832

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Metalourg win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Metalourg was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
1′KICK-OFF Metalourg v Shortan
28′28′ and it is 1–0: Metalourg have scored. 1–0 · 71–20–10
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Metalourg 1–0 Shortan
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Metalourg win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
30′We published Metalourg at 43%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–9
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 71–20–9
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Metalourg win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
45′HALF-TIME Metalourg 1–0 Shortan
46′SECOND HALF Metalourg 1–0 Shortan
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Metalourg 1–1 Shortan
FTFULL TIME Metalourg 1–1 Shortan
FTMetalourg 1–1 Shortan · Metalourg win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 11:18 · locked at kick-off

Metalourg win43%

Draw26%

Shortan win31%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 12:00

VenueMetallurg Bekabad Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Metalourg

Shortan

23Days since last match6

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Shortan	21	+18	45
3	Metalourg	20	+30	40

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metalourg winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 11:18 · locked at kick-off

43% The market46%

Us43%

~~Market~~46%

We make Metalourg a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · metalourg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metalourg win	43%	46%	−3
Draw	26%	26%	−1
Shortan win	31%	27%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	50%	53%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	57%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	32%	−4
Metalourg or draw	69%	73%	−4
Metalourg clean sheet	30%	–	–
Shortan clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.2 8.3 5.1 2.1 1 10.1 12.0 7.2 3.0 2 7.4 8.7 5.2 2.1 3 3.7 4.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Metalourg down, Shortan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 317 Pro League A matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 146 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Metalourg at home: 2.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Shortan away: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Metalourg, 1.21 for Shortan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SHO 1–0 MET

Form · last six in Pro League A

METALOURG

WWWWWW3–1 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

SHORTAN

LLWWWW1–3 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	20	+29	49
2	Shortan	21	+18	45
3	Metalourg	20	+30	40
4	FarDu	22	+7	40
5	Gazalkent	22	+15	38
6	Lochin	22	+8	38
7	Kattaqurgon	20	+10	36
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	20	+13	32
9	Respublika FA	20	−3	25
10	Jayxun	22	−6	24
11	Yaypan	21	−15	22
12	Pakhtakor II	21	−34	10
13	BuxDu	21	−36	10
14	Qiziriq	20	−36	4