Metalourg v Gazalkent prediction · Pro League A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MetalourgDrawGazalkent

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Metalourg 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Metalourg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Metalourg 53%, draw 23%, Gazalkent 24%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Metalourg v GazalkentBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Metalourg win53%

Draw23%

Gazalkent win24%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueMetallurg Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Metalourg

Gazalkent

7Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · Pro League A

Last match: 21 Oct · Cup (Uzbekistan)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Metalourg	23	+34	47
4	Gazalkent	23	+16	41

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metalourg winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Metalourg a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Metalourg v Gazalkent~~1.84 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 2 Sept~~W4 D1 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 47 v 41~~2 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metalourg win	53%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Gazalkent win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Metalourg or draw	76%	–	–
Metalourg clean sheet	33%	–	–
Gazalkent clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.4 6.0 3.4 1 9.4 10.6 6.0 2.3 2 8.5 9.4 5.3 2.1 3 5.2 5.8 3.3 4 2.5 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Metalourg down, Gazalkent across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 327 Pro League A matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Metalourg at home: 2.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gazalkent away: 3.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Metalourg, 1.14 for Gazalkent. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GAZ 3–2 MET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 2 Sept

METALOURG

WWWDW3–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

GAZALKENT

DDWWWW1–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	23	+35	58
2	Metalourg	23	+34	47
3	Shortan	23	+17	46
4	Gazalkent	23	+16	41
5	Kattaqurgon	23	+8	40
6	FarDu	23	+6	40
7	Olimpik-Mobiuz	23	+18	39
8	Lochin	23	+8	39
9	Respublika FA	23	−2	29
10	Yaypan	24	−17	25
11	Jayxun	23	−8	24
12	Pakhtakor II	23	−33	13
13	BuxDu	23	−34	13
14	Qiziriq	24	−48	4