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Lochin v Olimpik-Mobiuz

Lochin

2–1Full time

Olimpik-Mobiuz

Pro League A · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 14:31

Lochin 2–1 Olimpik-Mobiuz OLIMPIK-MOBIUZ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olimpik-Mobiuz win~~41%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.665

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.596

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olimpik-Mobiuz win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Olimpik-Mobiuz 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 34–26–41
13′Little has changed for our model: Olimpik-Mobiuz 41% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
20′A goal for Lochin on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 62–22–16
22′We said Olimpik-Mobiuz at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 62–23–15
28′We said Olimpik-Mobiuz at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 63–23–14
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 41% at kick-off, 12% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Lochin win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Olimpik-Mobiuz win 12%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Olimpik-Mobiuz win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Lochin win 33%)
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Lochin win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Olimpik-Mobiuz win 11%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Olimpik-Mobiuz win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Lochin win 33%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Lochin win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Olimpik-Mobiuz win 11%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Olimpik-Mobiuz win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Lochin win 33%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Lochin win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Olimpik-Mobiuz win 11%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Olimpik-Mobiuz win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Lochin win 33%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Lochin win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Olimpik-Mobiuz win 11%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Lochin win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Olimpik-Mobiuz win 11%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Olimpik-Mobiuz win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Olimpik-Mobiuz win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Lochin win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Lochin 1–0 Olimpik-Mobiuz
45′SECOND HALF Lochin 1–0 Olimpik-Mobiuz
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Lochin 1–1 Olimpik-Mobiuz · A. Samariddinov
55′⚽ GOAL · 56' Lochin 1–1 Olimpik-Mobiuz
82′⚽ GOAL · 84' Lochin 1–1 Olimpik-Mobiuz
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Lochin 2–1 Olimpik-Mobiuz · D. Tukhsanov
FTFULL TIME Lochin 2–1 Olimpik-Mobiuz
FTLochin 2–1 Olimpik-Mobiuz · Olimpik-Mobiuz win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 12:01 · locked at kick-off

Lochin win34%

Draw25%

Olimpik-Mobiuz win41%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lochin

Olimpik-Mobiuz

5Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Lochin	21	+7	35
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	19	+14	32

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olimpik-mobiuz winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 12:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market36%

Us41%

~~Market~~36%

We make Olimpik-Mobiuz a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · olimpik-mobiuz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lochin win	34%	37%	−3
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Olimpik-Mobiuz win	41%	36%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	52%	52%	0
Both teams to score	55%	56%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	30%	0
Lochin or draw	59%	64%	−5
Lochin clean sheet	24%	–	–
Olimpik-Mobiuz clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.6 9.2 6.7 3.3 1 8.3 11.9 8.5 4.2 2 5.4 7.7 5.6 2.7 3 2.4 3.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lochin down, Olimpik-Mobiuz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 314 Pro League A matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 143 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lochin at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Olimpik-Mobiuz away: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Lochin, 1.46 for Olimpik-Mobiuz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~OLI 2–3 LOC

Form · last six in Pro League A

LOCHIN

WWDLLW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 6–2

OLIMPIK-MOBIUZ

DWWLWD0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	20	+29	49
2	Shortan	21	+18	45
3	Metalourg	20	+30	40
4	FarDu	21	+10	40
5	Gazalkent	21	+14	35
6	Lochin	21	+7	35
7	Kattaqurgon	19	+7	33
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	19	+14	32
9	Respublika FA	20	−3	25
10	Jayxun	21	−5	24
11	Yaypan	21	−15	22
12	Pakhtakor II	21	−34	10
13	BuxDu	21	−36	10
14	Qiziriq	20	−36	4