Jayxun v Respublika FA prediction · Pro League A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

JayxunDrawRespublika FA

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Respublika FA 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Respublika FA just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Jayxun 36%, draw 25%, Respublika FA 38%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Jayxun v Respublika FABefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Jayxun win36%

Draw25%

Respublika FA win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jayxun

Respublika FA

7Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Pro League A

Last match: 21 Oct · Pro League A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Respublika FA	23	−2	29
11	Jayxun	23	−8	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · respublika fa winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Respublika FA a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jayxun v Respublika FA~~1.37 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 7 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 29~~11 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Respublika FA win

Published at 40%, 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jayxun win	36%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Respublika FA win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Jayxun or draw	62%	–	–
Jayxun clean sheet	25%	–	–
Respublika FA clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.4 8.8 6.2 2.9 1 8.5 11.8 8.3 3.9 2 5.8 8.0 5.6 2.7 3 2.7 3.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jayxun down, Respublika FA across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 327 Pro League A matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jayxun at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Respublika FA away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Jayxun, 1.42 for Respublika FA. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~RES 1–2 JAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 7 Sept

JAYXUN

WWLLLL1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–2

RESPUBLIKA FA

WWWDL2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	23	+35	58
2	Metalourg	23	+34	47
3	Shortan	23	+17	46
4	Gazalkent	23	+16	41
5	Kattaqurgon	23	+8	40
6	FarDu	23	+6	40
7	Olimpik-Mobiuz	23	+18	39
8	Lochin	23	+8	39
9	Respublika FA	23	−2	29
10	Yaypan	24	−17	25
11	Jayxun	23	−8	24
12	Pakhtakor II	23	−33	13
13	BuxDu	23	−34	13
14	Qiziriq	24	−48	4