Gazalkent v Shortan prediction · Pro League A

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Gazalkent 2–1 Shortan SHORTAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shortan win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.675

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shortan win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Shortan was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 33–26–41
1′KICK-OFF Gazalkent v Shortan
19′Gazalkent find the net on 18′. 1–0. 1–0 · 61–22–16
19′We said Shortan at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 61–22–16
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Gazalkent 1–0 Shortan
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Shortan win: 41% at kick-off, 16% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Gazalkent win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Shortan win 16%)
24′A goal for Shortan on 23′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–31–38
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Gazalkent 1–1 Shortan
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Shortan win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Shortan win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Gazalkent win 32%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Shortan win 33%)
45′Shortan score on 45′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 8–20–72
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Gazalkent 1–2 Shortan
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Shortan win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Shortan win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 20%)
45′HALF-TIME Gazalkent 1–1 Shortan
46′We published Shortan at 41%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–2 · 8–20–72
46′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 8–20–72
46′SECOND HALF Gazalkent 1–1 Shortan
47′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+2' Shortan
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Shortan win: 41% at kick-off, 33% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Shortan win 33%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Shortan win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
53′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 26–44–30
56′We said Shortan at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 2–1 · 71–22–7
56′Gazalkent score on 55′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 71–22–7
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Gazalkent 2–1 Shortan
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Shortan win: 41% at kick-off, 7% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Gazalkent win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
66′We said Shortan at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Shortan win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME Gazalkent 2–1 Shortan
FTGazalkent 2–1 Shortan · Shortan win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shortan are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gazalkent 34%, draw 26%, Shortan 41%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Gazalkent v ShortanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gazalkent win34%

Draw26%

Shortan win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gazalkent

Shortan

5Days since last match4

Last match: 12 Oct · Pro League A

Last match: 13 Oct · Pro League A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Shortan	22	+18	46
5	Gazalkent	22	+15	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shortan winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Shortan a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gazalkent v Shortan~~1.28 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 38 v 46~~5 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gazalkent win	34%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Shortan win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Gazalkent or draw	59%	–	–
Gazalkent clean sheet	24%	–	–
Shortan clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.9 9.3 6.8 3.4 1 8.3 12.0 8.5 4.2 2 5.4 7.6 5.4 2.6 3 2.4 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gazalkent down, Shortan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 321 Pro League A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gazalkent at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Shortan away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Gazalkent, 1.45 for Shortan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SHO 0–2 GAZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 28 Aug

GAZALKENT

LDDWWW0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 2–1

SHORTAN

LWWWWD0–1 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	22	+33	55
2	Shortan	22	+18	46
3	Metalourg	22	+33	44
4	FarDu	22	+7	40
5	Gazalkent	22	+15	38
6	Lochin	22	+8	38
7	Kattaqurgon	21	+7	36
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	21	+13	33
9	Respublika FA	22	0	29
10	Yaypan	22	−14	25
11	Jayxun	22	−6	24
12	Pakhtakor II	22	−35	10
13	BuxDu	22	−37	10
14	Qiziriq	22	−42	4