FarDu v Metalourg prediction · Pro League A

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 13:30

FarDu 0–1 Metalourg METALOURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Metalourg win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.452

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Metalourg win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Metalourg was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 30–24–45
1′KICK-OFF FarDu v Metalourg
14′A goal for Metalourg on 14′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–70
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' FarDu 0–1 Metalourg
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Metalourg win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
15′We published Metalourg at 45%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 12–18–70
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 10–19–71
45′HALF-TIME FarDu 0–1 Metalourg
46′SECOND HALF FarDu 0–1 Metalourg
51′We published Metalourg at 45%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Metalourg win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
67′We published Metalourg at 45%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
75′We published Metalourg at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Metalourg win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
81′We published Metalourg at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
88′We published Metalourg at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Metalourg win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME FarDu 0–1 Metalourg
FTFarDu 0–1 Metalourg · Metalourg win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Metalourg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FarDu 30%, draw 24%, Metalourg 45%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on FarDu v MetalourgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

FarDu win30%

Draw24%

Metalourg win45%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FarDu

Metalourg

7Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · Pro League A

Last match: 13 Oct · Pro League A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Metalourg	22	+33	44
5	FarDu	22	+7	40

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metalourg winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Metalourg a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FarDu v Metalourg~~1.30 – 1.64

~~Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 20 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 40 v 44~~5 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FarDu win	30%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Metalourg win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
FarDu or draw	55%	–	–
FarDu clean sheet	20%	–	–
Metalourg clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.6 8.6 7.1 3.9 1 6.8 11.2 9.0 4.9 2.1 2 4.5 7.2 5.8 3.2 3 3.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FarDu down, Metalourg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 324 Pro League A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.5% of games this season, across 153 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 7.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FarDu at home: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Metalourg away: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for FarDu, 1.64 for Metalourg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~7.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MET 7–0 FAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 20 Aug

FARDU

WDWWDL1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–3

METALOURG

WWWWWD3–0 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	23	+35	58
2	Shortan	23	+17	46
3	Metalourg	22	+33	44
4	Gazalkent	23	+16	41
5	FarDu	22	+7	40
6	Lochin	23	+8	39
7	Kattaqurgon	22	+7	37
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	21	+13	33
9	Respublika FA	22	0	29
10	Yaypan	22	−14	25
11	Jayxun	23	−8	24
12	Pakhtakor II	22	−35	10
13	BuxDu	22	−37	10
14	Qiziriq	22	−42	4