FarDu v Kattaqurgon prediction · Pro League A

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 13:31

FarDu 0–3 Kattaqurgon FARDU WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FarDu win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.756

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FarDu win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF FarDu v Kattaqurgon
2′Much as we predicted: FarDu was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–29
7′Much as we predicted: FarDu was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' FarDu 0–1 Kattaqurgon
18′Kattaqurgon find the net on 16′. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–59
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' FarDu win: 43% at kick-off, 17% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Kattaqurgon win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was FarDu win 17%)
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' FarDu win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' FarDu win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Kattaqurgon win 29%)
19′Kattaqurgon ahead on 16′ through Sharipov. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–59
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' FarDu win: 43% at kick-off, 17% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Kattaqurgon win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was FarDu win 17%)
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' FarDu win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' FarDu win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Kattaqurgon win 29%)
20′We said FarDu at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–24–60
21′We said FarDu at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–24–60
29′We said FarDu at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–62
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' FarDu win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
34′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 13–24–63
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' FarDu win: 43% at kick-off, 14% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' FarDu win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' FarDu 0–2 Kattaqurgon
43′A goal for Kattaqurgon on 42′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–89
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' FarDu win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' FarDu win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' FarDu win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' FarDu win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Kattaqurgon win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was FarDu win 2%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' FarDu win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Kattaqurgon win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was FarDu win 2%)
45′HALF-TIME FarDu 0–2 Kattaqurgon
46′SECOND HALF FarDu 0–2 Kattaqurgon
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' FarDu 0–3 Kattaqurgon
90′PENALTY MISSED · 95' FarDu
FTFULL TIME FarDu 0–3 Kattaqurgon
FTFarDu 0–3 Kattaqurgon · FarDu win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 11:01 · locked at kick-off

FarDu win43%

Draw27%

Kattaqurgon win30%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FarDu

Kattaqurgon

5Days since last match29

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	FarDu	21	+10	40
7	Kattaqurgon	19	+7	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fardu winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 11:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make FarDu a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FarDu win	43%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Kattaqurgon win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
FarDu or draw	70%	–	–
FarDu clean sheet	34%	–	–
Kattaqurgon clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.8 9.2 5.0 1 11.6 12.5 6.8 2.5 2 8.0 8.5 4.7 3 3.8 4.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FarDu down, Kattaqurgon across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 314 Pro League A matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 143 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FarDu at home: 3.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kattaqurgon away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for FarDu, 1.09 for Kattaqurgon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KAT 3–0 FAR

Form · last six in Pro League A

FARDU

WWDWWD3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–2

KATTAQURGON

WLLLLW2–1 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	20	+29	49
2	Shortan	21	+18	45
3	Metalourg	20	+30	40
4	FarDu	21	+10	40
5	Gazalkent	21	+14	35
6	Lochin	21	+7	35
7	Kattaqurgon	19	+7	33
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	19	+14	32
9	Respublika FA	20	−3	25
10	Jayxun	21	−5	24
11	Yaypan	21	−15	22
12	Pakhtakor II	21	−34	10
13	BuxDu	21	−36	10
14	Qiziriq	20	−36	4