Aral v Jayxun prediction · Pro League A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Aral 2–0 Jayxun ARAL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Aral win~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.119

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aral are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aral 72%, draw 17%, Jayxun 11%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Aral v JayxunBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Aral win72%

Draw17%

Jayxun win11%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aral

Jayxun

5Days since last match6

Last match: 13 Oct · Pro League A

Last match: 12 Oct · Pro League A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aral winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

72% The market–

Us72%

We make Aral a 72% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aral v Jayxun~~2.30 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 20 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 55 v 24~~1 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aral win	72%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Jayxun win	11%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Aral or draw	89%	–	–
Aral clean sheet	50%	–	–
Jayxun clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.7%

0123450 5.3 3.7 1 11.3 8.2 3.0 2 12.7 8.9 3.2 3 9.7 6.7 2.4 4 5.8 3.9 5 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Aral down, Jayxun across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 322 Pro League A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League A matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 151 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aral at home: 2.00 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Jayxun away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.30 goals for Aral, 0.71 for Jayxun. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~JAY 1–4 ARA · JAY 1–2 ARA · ARA 2–1 JAY · JAY 0–0 ARA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League A this season · since 20 Aug

ARAL

LWDWWW1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 5–2 · 2–1

JAYXUN

WWWLLL3–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aral	22	+33	55
2	Shortan	23	+17	46
3	Metalourg	22	+33	44
4	Gazalkent	23	+16	41
5	FarDu	22	+7	40
6	Lochin	22	+8	38
7	Kattaqurgon	21	+7	36
8	Olimpik-Mobiuz	21	+13	33
9	Respublika FA	22	0	29
10	Yaypan	22	−14	25
11	Jayxun	22	−6	24
12	Pakhtakor II	22	−35	10
13	BuxDu	22	−37	10
14	Qiziriq	22	−42	4