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Model 1.2

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Sogdiana v Andijan

Sogdiana
1–2Full time
Andijan

Cup · TUE 20 OCT · Sogdiana Sport Complex

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:31
Sogdiana 1–2 Andijan SOGDIANA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sogdiana win49%
The market said37%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.803
The market’s Brier score0.626

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sogdiana win at 49%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Sogdiana v Andijan
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Sogdiana 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–28
  4. 7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Andijan
  5. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Sogdiana win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Sogdiana 0–0 Andijan
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Sogdiana 0–0 Andijan
  8. 50′We said Sogdiana at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–38–25
  9. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Sogdiana
  10. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sogdiana win 38%)
  11. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 39–36–25
  12. 57′We said Sogdiana at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–23
  13. 60′Andijan score on 59′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–24–67
  14. 60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Sogdiana 0–1 Andijan
  15. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Sogdiana win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
  16. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Andijan win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 45%)
  17. 61′We said Sogdiana at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–24–68
  18. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sogdiana · On: J. Kakhramonov · Off: A. Abdurashidov
  19. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sogdiana · On: O. Karimov · Off: B. Askarov
  20. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sogdiana · On: S. Mavlonkulov · Off: A. Saidov
  21. 71′We said Sogdiana at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
  22. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Andijan · On: A. Turgunboev · Off: D. Abdumannopov
  23. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Andijan · On: A. Turgunboev · Off: D. Abdumannopov
  24. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Andijan · On: R. Turdimurodov · Off: K. Iminov
  25. 79′Andijan find the net on 79′. 0–1 · 2–15–83
  26. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Andijan · On: S. Yorkinboev · Off: M. Toirov
  27. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Sogdiana 0–2 Andijan
  28. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sogdiana · On: S. Jamolov · Off: J. Boltaboev
  29. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Andijan
  30. 84′A goal for Sogdiana on 84′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–10–90
  31. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Sogdiana 1–2 Andijan
  32. 86′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–2 · 0–8–91
  33. 90′1–2 at the end. Our 49% on Sogdiana misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  34. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Andijan
  35. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Sogdiana · On: I. Kobilov · Off: O. Nurmatov
  36. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Andijan · On: A. Komilov · Off: A. Gulomov
  37. 92′Sogdiana find the net on 90′. 1–2 · 0–4–96
  38. 96′Andijan are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 0–2–98
  39. 96′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Andijan
  40. FTFULL TIME Sogdiana 1–2 Andijan
  41. FTSogdiana 1–2 Andijan · Sogdiana win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sogdiana are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sogdiana 49%, draw 23%, Andijan 28%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Sogdiana v AndijanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Sogdiana win49%
Draw23%
Andijan win28%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 15:00

RoundQuarter-finals

VenueSogdiana Sport Complex

Line-ups

Sogdiana

Andijan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sogdiana

Andijan

4Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

Last match: 15 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sogdiana

Formation not confirmed

27 M. Mitrovic

4 B. Dzhumatov

2 Z. Dzhuraboev

13 F. Ivanovic

22 A. Abdurashidov

8 J. Boltaboev

77 O. Nurmatov

7 P. Micin

6 B. Askarov

14 L. Doriev

29 A. Saidov

Coach · Ulugbek Bakaev

Substitutes

3 · I. Kobilov

28 · S. Mavlonkulov

9 · D. Zajmovic

23 · S. Khoshimov

19 · Z. Urinboev

10 · J. Kakhramonov

17 · O. Karimov

74 · B. Nadzhafaliev

49 · S. Jamolov

Andijan

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Adkhamov

5 A. Gulomov

20 I. Tukhtakhuzhaev

15 N. Calasan

18 D. Temirov

23 D. Abdumannopov

26 M. Toirov

11 K. Iminov

22 U. Ismonaliev

27 M. Boakye

7 P. Kholdorkhonov

Coach · Islam Akhmedov

Substitutes

14 · A. Komilov

99 · R. Turdimurodov

70 · K. Karimov

19 · A. Potapov

8 · S. Komilov

17 · A. Turgunboev

88 · S. Yorkinboev

28 · B. Sulaymonov

67 · F. Ubaydullaev

Our number · sogdiana winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 16 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
49% The market37%
Us49%
Market37%

We make Sogdiana a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sogdiana v Andijan1.80 – 1.32
Form · Cup this season · since 30 AugW1 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L0
The market · Sogdiana win37% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 14:44
Our probability · Sogdiana win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sogdiana win49%37%+12
Draw23%27%−4
Andijan win28%36%−8
Over 2.5 goals60%57%+3
Both teams to score61%62%−1
Over 1.5 goals82%79%+3
Over 3.5 goals38%37%+1
Sogdiana or draw72%64%+8
Sogdiana clean sheet27%––
Andijan clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%
0123450 4.6 5.9 3.9 1 8.0 10.4 6.8 3.0 2 7.1 9.2 6.1 2.7 3 4.3 5.6 3.7 4 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sogdiana down, Andijan across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.10
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsSOG 1–0 AND · AND 4–0 SOG · AND 2–2 SOG · SOG 1–0 AND

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 30 Aug

SOGDIANA

W2–0

ANDIJAN

D2–2