Navbahor v Gazalkent
NavbahorGazalkentCup · WED 21 OCT · Markaziy Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Navbahor win at 77%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Navbahor was 77% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 76–15–8
- 1′KICK-OFF Navbahor v Gazalkent
- 27′Navbahor find the net on 26′. 0–0 · 69–21–10
- 28′We published Navbahor at 77%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–8–2
- 28′⚽ GOAL · 26' Navbahor 1–0 Gazalkent
- 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Navbahor win: 77% at kick-off, 90% now
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 90–8–2
- 32′A goal for Navbahor on 32′. 1–0 · 90–8–2
- 33′We published Navbahor at 77%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
- 33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Navbahor 2–0 Gazalkent · J. Kojo
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Navbahor win: 77% at kick-off, 98% now
- 33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Gazalkent
- 36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Navbahor
- 37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Gazalkent
- 45′HALF-TIME Navbahor 2–0 Gazalkent
- 45′SECOND HALF Navbahor 2–0 Gazalkent
- 52′Gazalkent find the net on 52′. 2–0 · 98–1–0
- 53′We published Navbahor at 77%. Our model now makes it 89%. 2–1 · 89–9–2
- 53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Navbahor 2–1 Gazalkent
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Navbahor win: 77% at kick-off, 89% now
- 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Navbahor · On: D. Kholmatov · Off: A. Rakhimzhonov
- 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Navbahor · On: V. Ilic · Off: M. Usmonov
- 69′A goal for Navbahor on 68′. 2–1 · 91–9–1
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Gazalkent · On: M. Fayzullaev · Off: F. Olimov
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Navbahor · On: K. Norchaev · Off: J. Kojo
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Navbahor · On: D. Komilov · Off: M. Giyosov
- 82′Navbahor score on 82′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Navbahor 3–1 Gazalkent
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Navbahor win: 77% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 83′We published Navbahor at 77%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 84′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Navbahor · On: M. Khamraliev · Off: S. Mirsaidov
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Gazalkent · On: A. Prisyazhnyuk · Off: S. Sadirdjanov
- 90′Full time, 3–1. We called Navbahor at 77% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Navbahor 3–1 Gazalkent
- FTNavbahor 3–1 Gazalkent · Navbahor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Navbahor are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Navbahor 77%, draw 15%, Gazalkent 8%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 50%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Navbahor win77%Gazalkent win8%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 15:00
RoundQuarter-finals
VenueMarkaziy Stadium
Match timeline
All events
NavbahorMINGazalkentEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Navbahor
Gazalkent
Last match: 17 Oct · Super League (Uzbekistan)
Last match: 17 Oct · Pro League A
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Navbahor a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 81%, 77% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Navbahor win | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw | 15% | 18% | −3 |
| Gazalkent win | 8% | 11% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 62% | +4 |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 81% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 43% | +1 |
| Navbahor or draw | 92% | 89% | +3 |
| Navbahor clean sheet | 46% | – | – |
| Gazalkent clean sheet | 7% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2026No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season · since 30 Aug
NAVBAHOR
GAZALKENT