Westchester SC v Union Omaha prediction · USL League One

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 02:30

Westchester SC 2–1 Union Omaha UNION OMAHA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Omaha win~~44%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.708

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.847

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union Omaha win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Union Omaha 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
1′KICK-OFF Westchester SC v Union Omaha
7′S. Ors Navarro scores for Union Omaha on 4′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–18–68
7′⚽ GOAL · 4' Westchester SC 0–1 Union Omaha · S. Ors Navarro (assist A. Gavilanes)
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Union Omaha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
9′We said Union Omaha at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 14–18–68
29′We said Union Omaha at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 11–19–70
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 11–19–70
31′30′: K. Blommestijn on the scoresheet for Westchester SC, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 30–30–40
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Westchester SC 1–1 Union Omaha · K. Blommestijn
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Union Omaha win: 44% at kick-off, 40% now
44′Westchester SC ahead on 44′ through C. McGlynn. 2–1. 2–1 · 64–24–13
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Westchester SC 2–1 Union Omaha · C. McGlynn
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Union Omaha win: 44% at kick-off, 13% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Westchester SC win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Union Omaha win 13%)
45′HALF-TIME Westchester SC 2–1 Union Omaha
47′We said Union Omaha at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 2–1 · 65–24–12
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Westchester SC · On: J. Jimenez · Off: C. Dickerson
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Westchester SC · On: P. Elias · Off: A. Armas
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Westchester SC · On: B. Pierre · Off: T. Timchenko
48′SECOND HALF Westchester SC 2–1 Union Omaha
55′We said Union Omaha at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 67–23–9
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Union Omaha · On: D. Gutierrez · Off: A. Gavilanes
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Union Omaha · On: S. Guediri · Off: L. Wootton
66′🟨 YELLOW · 64' S. Ors Navarro · Union Omaha
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Westchester SC · On: D. Bouman · Off: C. McGlynn
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' K. Blommestijn · Westchester SC
70′We said Union Omaha at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Union Omaha win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Union Omaha · On: A. Gomez · Off: P. Botello Faz
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Union Omaha · On: K. Tekiela · Off: A. Billhardt
76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' K. Tekiela · Union Omaha
86′🟨 YELLOW · 82' V. Candela · Union Omaha
86′🟨 YELLOW · 83' M. Jennings · Westchester SC
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Union Omaha · On: T. Klein · Off: R. Jiba
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Gabriel Cabral · Union Omaha
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' J. Loura · Westchester SC
FTFULL TIME Westchester SC 2–1 Union Omaha
FTWestchester SC 2–1 Union Omaha · Union Omaha win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Omaha are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Westchester SC 32%, draw 24%, Union Omaha 44%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Westchester SC v Union OmahaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Westchester SC win32%

Draw24%

Union Omaha win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueThe Stadium at Memorial Field

Line-ups

Westchester SC

Union Omaha

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Westchester SC

Union Omaha

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · USL League One

Last match: 10 Oct · USL League One

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Union Omaha	30	+21	61
10	Westchester SC	30	+3	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Westchester SC

Formation not confirmed

99 L. Marinelli

77 D. Burko

2 M. Jennings

5 T. Timchenko

3 C. Dickerson

14 J. Loura

21 A. Armas

6 C. McGlynn

18 E. Mackic

9 K. Blommestijn

83 K. Evans

Coach · George Gjokaj

Substitutes

1 · A. Hammersley

4 · B. Pierre

7 · S. Powder

66 · N. Powder

20 · M. Vislocky

24 · P. Elias

8 · D. Bouman

27 · J. Jimenez

Union Omaha

Formation not confirmed

24 R. Nuhu

23 Y. Boudadi

4 S. Owusu

14 B. Kallman

27 R. Jiba

7 A. Billhardt

16 L. Wootton

8 Gabriel Cabral

77 A. Gavilanes

20 S. Ors Navarro

9 P. Botello Faz

Coach · Marco Candela Lopez Vincenzo

Substitutes

99 · C. Jensen

3 · B. Malone

6 · S. Guediri

25 · T. Klein

22 · K. Tekiela

21 · A. Gomez

17 · D. Gutierrez

Our number · union omaha winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market49%

Us44%

~~Market~~49%

We make Union Omaha a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Westchester SC v Union Omaha~~1.43 – 1.71

~~Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 36 v 61~~10 v 2

~~The market · Union Omaha win~~49% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Union Omaha win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Westchester SC win	32%	26%	+6
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Union Omaha win	44%	49%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	63%	−2
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	38%	42%	−4
Westchester SC or draw	56%	51%	+5
Westchester SC clean sheet	18%	–	–
Union Omaha clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.6 7.3 6.3 3.6 1 6.1 10.7 8.9 5.1 2.2 2 4.5 7.5 6.3 3.6 3 2.2 3.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Westchester SC down, Union Omaha across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,149 USL League One matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 254 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Westchester SC at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Union Omaha away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Westchester SC, 1.71 for Union Omaha. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–2 WES · WES 1–2 UNI · UNI 2–1 WES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 6 Sept

WESTCHESTER SC

LWWDWW4–5 · 5–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–2

UNION OMAHA

WWWWWL2–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	30	+28	63
2	Union Omaha	30	+21	61
3	Forward Madison	30	+22	52
4	Boise	30	+7	52
5	One Knoxville	31	+13	51
6	Spokane Velocity	29	+6	50
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	+7	46
8	Fort Wayne	30	+9	45
9	Naples	30	−9	40
10	Westchester SC	30	+3	36
11	Sarasota Paradise	29	−3	36
12	Corpus Christi	30	−11	36
13	Alta	30	−7	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	−11	31
15	Greenville Triumph	30	−21	27
16	NY Cosmos	29	−23	25
17	Richmond Kickers	30	−31	23