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Westchester SC v Forward Madison

Westchester SC

3–2Full time

Forward Madison

USL League One · SUN 11 OCT · The Stadium at Memorial Field

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 02:30

Westchester SC 3–2 Forward Madison FORWARD MADISON WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Forward Madison win~~37%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.602

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.743

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Forward Madison win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Westchester SC 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–25–37
1′KICK-OFF Westchester SC v Forward Madison
2′Little has changed for our model: Westchester SC 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–26–37
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Westchester SC 1–0 Forward Madison · K. Blommestijn
22′Westchester SC ahead on 13′ through K. Blommestijn. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–21–14
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Forward Madison win: 37% at kick-off, 14% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Forward Madison win: 37% at kick-off, 37% now
23′Westchester SC ahead on 13′ through K. Blommestijn. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–21–14
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Forward Madison win: 37% at kick-off, 37% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Forward Madison win: 37% at kick-off, 14% now
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' G. Kanyane · Forward Madison
26′Westchester SC ahead on 13′ through K. Blommestijn. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–22–13
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Forward Madison win: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
27′Westchester SC ahead on 13′ through K. Blommestijn. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–22–13
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Forward Madison win: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 24' K. Toure · Forward Madison
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Forward Madison win: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Westchester SC 2–0 Forward Madison · K. Blommestijn
45′HALF-TIME Westchester SC 2–0 Forward Madison
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Forward Madison · On: S. Gyamfi · Off: G. Kanyane
46′SECOND HALF Westchester SC 2–0 Forward Madison
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Westchester SC 2–1 Forward Madison · J. Bolma
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Forward Madison · On: H. Karamoko · Off: M. Segbers
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' K. Blommestijn · Westchester SC
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Westchester SC · On: P. Elias · Off: C. McGlynn
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Westchester SC · On: D. Bouman · Off: E. Mackic
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Westchester SC · On: J. Jimenez · Off: T. Timchenko
68′🟨 YELLOW · 64' K. Blommestijn · Westchester SC
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Westchester SC · On: P. Elias · Off: C. McGlynn
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Westchester SC · On: D. Bouman · Off: E. Mackic
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Westchester SC · On: J. Jimenez · Off: T. Timchenko
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Westchester SC 3–1 Forward Madison · P. Elias
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Forward Madison · On: C. Ngoubou · Off: K. Toure
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Forward Madison · On: C. McCamy · Off: J. Bolma
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' T. Humphrey · Forward Madison
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' A. Edwards · Forward Madison
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Forward Madison · On: J. Forbes · Off: E. Munjoma
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Westchester SC · On: S. Powder · Off: K. Evans
FTFULL TIME Westchester SC 3–2 Forward Madison
FTWestchester SC 3–2 Forward Madison · Forward Madison win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Westchester SC win37%

Draw26%

Forward Madison win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:00

Venue · The Stadium at Memorial Field

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Westchester SC

Formation not confirmed

99 L. Marinelli

77 D. Burko

2 M. Jennings

5 T. Timchenko

3 C. Dickerson

14 J. Loura

6 C. McGlynn

18 E. Mackic

83 K. Evans

9 K. Blommestijn

21 A. Armas

Coach · George Gjokaj

Substitutes

1 · A. Hammersley

7 · S. Powder

40 · M. Williams

20 · M. Vislocky

24 · P. Elias

8 · D. Bouman

17 · M. Diaz

27 · J. Jimenez

Forward Madison

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Harms

20 K. Carmichael

13 T. Humphrey

33 K. Toure

23 E. Munjoma

8 M. Segbers

12 R. Torres

6 G. Kanyane

9 R. Carmichael

3 A. Edwards

7 J. Bolma

Coach · Matt Glaeser

Substitutes

19 · T. Manske

24 · J. Forbes

4 · C. McCamy

5 · J. Shannon

21 · H. Karamoko

14 · S. Gyamfi

11 · C. Ngoubou

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Westchester SC

Formation not confirmed

99 L. Marinelli

77 D. Burko

2 M. Jennings

5 T. Timchenko

3 C. Dickerson

14 J. Loura

6 C. McGlynn

18 E. Mackic

83 K. Evans

9 K. Blommestijn

21 A. Armas

Coach · George Gjokaj

Substitutes

1 · A. Hammersley

7 · S. Powder

40 · M. Williams

20 · M. Vislocky

24 · P. Elias

8 · D. Bouman

17 · M. Diaz

27 · J. Jimenez

Forward Madison

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Harms

20 K. Carmichael

13 T. Humphrey

33 K. Toure

23 E. Munjoma

8 M. Segbers

12 R. Torres

6 G. Kanyane

9 R. Carmichael

3 A. Edwards

7 J. Bolma

Coach · Matt Glaeser

Substitutes

19 · T. Manske

24 · J. Forbes

4 · C. McCamy

5 · J. Shannon

21 · H. Karamoko

14 · S. Gyamfi

11 · C. Ngoubou

Our number · forward madison winPublished 11 Oct 00:01

37% The market44%

Us37%

~~Market~~44%

We make Forward Madison a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · forward madison win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Westchester SC win	37%	30%	+7
Draw	26%	26%	0
Forward Madison win	37%	44%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	53%	60%	−7
Both teams to score	57%	63%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	80%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	40%	−9
Westchester SC or draw	63%	56%	+7
Westchester SC clean sheet	25%	–	–
Forward Madison clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.5 8.3 6.0 2.8 1 8.2 12.1 8.2 3.9 2 5.9 8.2 5.7 2.7 3 2.8 3.9 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Westchester SC down, Forward Madison across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,140 USL League One matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 245 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Westchester SC at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Forward Madison away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Westchester SC, 1.40 for Forward Madison. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FOR 2–0 WES · WES 0–1 FOR · FOR 1–2 WES · WES 1–1 FOR

Form · last six in USL League One

WESTCHESTER SC

LLWWDW1–2 · 4–5 · 5–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

FORWARD MADISON

WDLWLD2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Omaha	29	+22	61
2	Charlotte Independence	29	+25	60
3	Forward Madison	29	+23	52
4	One Knoxville	30	+15	51
5	Boise	29	+6	49
6	Spokane Velocity	27	+5	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	+7	46
8	Fort Wayne	29	+8	42
9	Naples	29	−10	37
10	Corpus Christi	29	−10	36
11	Westchester SC	29	+2	33
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	−4	33
13	Alta	29	−7	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	−10	31
15	NY Cosmos	28	−20	25
16	Greenville Triumph	28	−22	23
17	Richmond Kickers	29	−30	23