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Union Omaha v Fort Wayne

Union Omaha

0–1Full time

Fort Wayne

USL League One · SAT 10 OCT · Werner Park

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 00:30

Union Omaha 0–1 Fort Wayne UNION OMAHA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Omaha win~~58%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.021

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.011

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union Omaha win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Union Omaha was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–22–20
1′KICK-OFF Union Omaha v Fort Wayne
3′Much as we predicted: Union Omaha was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–22–20
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Union Omaha 0–1 Fort Wayne · T. Healy
34′⚽ GOAL · 25' Union Omaha 0–1 Fort Wayne · T. Healy (assist C. Awoudor)
45′HALF-TIME Union Omaha 0–1 Fort Wayne
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Union Omaha · On: L. Wootton · Off: E. Caceres
46′SECOND HALF Union Omaha 0–1 Fort Wayne
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' L. Neidlinger · Fort Wayne
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' S. Owusu · Union Omaha
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Union Omaha · On: S. Ors Navarro · Off: R. Jiba
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' A. Vukovic · Fort Wayne
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Fort Wayne · On: J. Thomas · Off: T. Healy
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Fort Wayne · On: J. Jordan · Off: L. Neidlinger
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Union Omaha · On: A. Gavilanes · Off: K. Tekiela
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' A. Vukovic · Fort Wayne
74′🟥 RED CARD · 73' A. Vukovic · Fort Wayne
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Fort Wayne · On: J. Musa · Off: J. Thomas
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Fort Wayne · On: J. Smith · Off: C. Awoudor
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' J. Armas · Fort Wayne
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Fort Wayne · On: M. Jiana · Off: K. Gafar
90′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Union Omaha · On: T. Klein · Off: A. Billhardt
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Union Omaha · On: T. Klein · Off: A. Billhardt
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' B. Schipmann · Fort Wayne
FTUnion Omaha 0–1 Fort Wayne · Union Omaha win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Union Omaha win58%

Draw22%

Fort Wayne win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 22:00

Venue · Werner Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Union Omaha

Formation not confirmed

99 C. Jensen

23 Y. Boudadi

4 S. Owusu

14 B. Kallman

6 S. Guediri

28 E. Caceres

8 Gabriel Cabral

7 A. Billhardt

22 K. Tekiela

27 R. Jiba

9 P. Botello Faz

Coach · Marco Candela Lopez Vincenzo

Substitutes

24 · R. Nuhu

3 · B. Malone

19 · C. Lawrence

16 · L. Wootton

25 · T. Klein

20 · S. Ors Navarro

77 · A. Gavilanes

Fort Wayne

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Schipmann

17 L. Neidlinger

4 T. Dias

3 A. Vukovic

13 M. Rempel

86 J. Armas

18 E. Nieto

12 K. Gafar

11 T. Healy

10 C. Awoudor

21 R. Becher

Coach · –

Substitutes

40 · M. Bonnaire

2 · J. Smith

41 · J. Musa

8 · J. Garay

6 · J. Jordan

23 · J. Thomas

25 · M. Jiana

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Union Omaha

Formation not confirmed

99 C. Jensen

23 Y. Boudadi

4 S. Owusu

14 B. Kallman

6 S. Guediri

28 E. Caceres

8 Gabriel Cabral

7 A. Billhardt

22 K. Tekiela

27 R. Jiba

9 P. Botello Faz

Coach · Marco Candela Lopez Vincenzo

Substitutes

24 · R. Nuhu

3 · B. Malone

19 · C. Lawrence

16 · L. Wootton

25 · T. Klein

20 · S. Ors Navarro

77 · A. Gavilanes

Fort Wayne

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Schipmann

17 L. Neidlinger

4 T. Dias

3 A. Vukovic

13 M. Rempel

86 J. Armas

18 E. Nieto

12 K. Gafar

11 T. Healy

10 C. Awoudor

21 R. Becher

Coach · –

Substitutes

40 · M. Bonnaire

2 · J. Smith

41 · J. Musa

8 · J. Garay

6 · J. Jordan

23 · J. Thomas

25 · M. Jiana

Our number · union omaha winPublished 10 Oct 22:04

58% The market57%

Us58%

~~Market~~57%

We make Union Omaha a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · union omaha win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Omaha win	58%	57%	+1
Draw	22%	23%	0
Fort Wayne win	20%	20%	0
Over 2.5 goals	57%	61%	−4
Both teams to score	56%	60%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	40%	−5
Union Omaha or draw	80%	80%	0
Union Omaha clean sheet	35%	–	–
Fort Wayne clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.4 5.1 2.8 1 9.5 10.5 5.4 2 9.4 9.8 5.1 3 6.1 6.3 3.3 4 3.0 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Omaha down, Fort Wayne across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,140 USL League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 245 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union Omaha at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fort Wayne away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Union Omaha, 1.05 for Fort Wayne. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FOR 0–2 UNI

Form · last six in USL League One

UNION OMAHA

DWWWWW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 3–1

FORT WAYNE

WLDDDW3–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Omaha	29	+22	61
2	Charlotte Independence	29	+25	60
3	Forward Madison	29	+23	52
4	One Knoxville	30	+15	51
5	Boise	29	+6	49
6	Spokane Velocity	27	+5	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	+7	46
8	Fort Wayne	29	+8	42
9	Naples	29	−10	37
10	Corpus Christi	29	−10	36
11	Westchester SC	29	+2	33
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	−4	33
13	Alta	29	−7	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	−10	31
15	NY Cosmos	28	−20	25
16	Greenville Triumph	28	−22	23
17	Richmond Kickers	29	−30	23