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Spokane Velocity v Chattanooga Red Wolves

Spokane Velocity
1–0Full time
Chattanooga Red Wolves

USL League One · SUN 18 OCT · One Spokane Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 04:31
Spokane Velocity 1–0 Chattanooga Red Wolves SPOKANE VELOCITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Spokane Velocity win47%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.426
The market’s Brier score0.392

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Spokane Velocity win at 47%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Spokane Velocity was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Spokane Velocity v Chattanooga Red Wolves
  4. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Spokane Velocity win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Spokane Velocity 0–0 Chattanooga Red Wolves
  6. 48′SECOND HALF Spokane Velocity 0–0 Chattanooga Red Wolves
  7. 50′We said Spokane Velocity at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–40–24
  8. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Spokane Velocity win 35%)
  9. 55′We said Spokane Velocity at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–44–23
  10. 55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 33–44–23
  11. 65′We said Spokane Velocity at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–53–20
  12. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 63' J. Vaughan · Chattanooga Red Wolves
  13. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 63' M. Mensah · Spokane Velocity
  14. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Spokane Velocity win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
  15. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Chattanooga Red Wolves · On: O. Tapia · Off: M. Bentley
  16. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Spokane Velocity · On: M. Alexandre · Off: N. Brett
  17. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' L. Gil · Spokane Velocity
  18. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' L. Veidman · Spokane Velocity
  19. 70′We said Spokane Velocity at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–17
  20. 76′We said Spokane Velocity at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
  21. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' D. Waldeck · Spokane Velocity
  22. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Spokane Velocity win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
  23. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Spokane Velocity · On: N. Vinyals · Off: L. Gil
  24. 81′We said Spokane Velocity at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–77–10
  25. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Chattanooga Red Wolves · On: T. Adewole · Off: C. Engmann
  26. 85′We said Spokane Velocity at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–7
  27. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Spokane Velocity win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  28. 91′Spokane Velocity ahead on 90′ through N. Vinyals. 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
  29. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Spokane Velocity 1–0 Chattanooga Red Wolves · N. Vinyals
  30. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Spokane Velocity win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  31. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Spokane Velocity win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
  32. 92′We published Spokane Velocity at 47%. Our model now makes it 97%. 1–0 · 97–3–0
  33. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Spokane Velocity win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  34. FTFULL TIME Spokane Velocity 1–0 Chattanooga Red Wolves
  35. FTSpokane Velocity 1–0 Chattanooga Red Wolves · Spokane Velocity win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spokane Velocity are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spokane Velocity 47%, draw 25%, Chattanooga Red Wolves 29%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Spokane Velocity v Chattanooga Red WolvesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Spokane Velocity win47%
Draw25%
Chattanooga Red Wolves win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 02:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueOne Spokane Stadium

Line-ups

Spokane Velocity

Chattanooga Red Wolves

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spokane Velocity

Chattanooga Red Wolves

4Days since last match11

Last match: 15 Oct · USL League One

Last match: 8 Oct · USL League One

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Spokane Velocity29+650
7Chattanooga Red Wolves30+746

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Spokane Velocity

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Lewis

13 L. Opara

12 C. Miller

3 N. Spielman

33 M. Mensah

77 A. Lewis

34 A. Elmasnaouy

11 S. John-Brown

10 L. Gil

18 D. Waldeck

9 N. Brett

Coach · Leigh Veidman

Substitutes

23 · C. Merancio

5 · G. Margvelashvili

4 · S. Fitch

7 · J. Gallardo

8 · N. Vinyals

42 · B. Meredith

17 · M. Alexandre

Chattanooga Red Wolves

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Smith

11 J. Ramos

40 C. Engmann

33 J. Ayimbila

30 A. Lombardi

4 J. Vaughan

7 O. Hernandez

14 P. Hernandez

35 A. Kelly-Rosales

23 Y. Lelin

10 M. Bentley

Coach · Scott MacKenzie

Substitutes

12 · R. Jerez

22 · E. Kinzner

2 · T. Adewole

21 · M. Acosta

17 · O. Tapia

47 · R. Binns

52 · J. Hallenberger

Our number · spokane velocity winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market49%
Us47%
Market49%

We make Spokane Velocity a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Spokane Velocity v Chattanooga Red Wolves1.63 – 1.22
Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 16 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 50 v 466 v 7
The market · Spokane Velocity win49% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50% 12 OCT 04:0718 OCT 01:42
Our probability · Spokane Velocity win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Spokane Velocity win47%49%−2
Draw25%26%−1
Chattanooga Red Wolves win29%25%+4
Over 2.5 goals54%53%+1
Both teams to score56%56%0
Over 1.5 goals78%76%+2
Over 3.5 goals32%32%0
Spokane Velocity or draw71%75%−4
Spokane Velocity clean sheet30%––
Chattanooga Red Wolves clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 6.1 6.9 4.3 1 9.3 11.6 6.9 2.8 2 7.7 9.2 5.6 2.3 3 4.2 5.0 3.1 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Spokane Velocity down, Chattanooga Red Wolves across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting2.20
Over 2.53 of 5
Both scored2 of 5
Last meetingsCHA 0–1 SPO · SPO 1–2 CHA · CHA 3–0 SPO · CHA 0–1 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 16 Sept

SPOKANE VELOCITY

DWWDWL2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 3–4

CHATTANOOGA RED WOLVES

WDLLWL1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–3

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Charlotte Independence30+2863
2Union Omaha30+2161
3One Knoxville32+1654
4Forward Madison30+2252
5Boise30+752
6Spokane Velocity29+650
7Chattanooga Red Wolves30+746
8Fort Wayne30+945
9Naples30−940
10Westchester SC30+336
11Sarasota Paradise29−336
12Corpus Christi30−1136
13Alta30−733
14Portland Hearts of Pine30−1131
15Greenville Triumph30−2127
16NY Cosmos30−2625
17Richmond Kickers30−3123

The competition's standings before kick-off.