Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › USL League One › Sarasota Paradise v Westchester SC

Back
USA flag

Sarasota Paradise v Westchester SC

Sarasota Paradise
2–2Full time
Westchester SC

USL League One · SUN 25 OCT · Premier Sports Campus

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 02:01
Sarasota Paradise 2–2 Westchester SC SARASOTA PARADISE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sarasota Paradise win50%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.933
The market’s Brier score0.931

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sarasota Paradise win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Sarasota Paradise was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–22–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sarasota Paradise v Westchester SC
  4. 12′We published Sarasota Paradise at 50%. Our model now makes it 88%. 2–0 · 88–8–4
  5. 13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' D. Bouman · Westchester SC
  6. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 76' G. McLaughlin · Sarasota Paradise
  7. 19′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sarasota Paradise · On: J. Spengler · Off: R. Burlew
  8. 19′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Westchester SC · On: S. Powder · Off: C. Dickerson
  9. 24′We published Sarasota Paradise at 50%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
  10. 24′Westchester SC pull one back on 83′ through J. Jimenez. 2–1. 2–1 · 72–17–10
  11. 24′⚽ GOAL · 83' Sarasota Paradise 2–1 Westchester SC · J. Jimenez
  12. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Sarasota Paradise win: 50% at kick-off, 72% now
  13. 25′We published Sarasota Paradise at 50%. Our model now makes it 73%. 2–1 · 73–17–10
  14. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 86' K. Sanchez · Sarasota Paradise
  15. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' A. Armas · Westchester SC
  16. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' E. Terzaghi · Sarasota Paradise
  17. 35′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Sarasota Paradise · On: M. McGurk · Off: G. McLaughlin
  18. 35′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Sarasota Paradise · On: E. Elovaara · Off: E. Bryant
  19. 38′D. Burko scores for Westchester SC on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 43–31–27
  20. 38′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Sarasota Paradise 2–2 Westchester SC · D. Burko
  21. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Sarasota Paradise win: 50% at kick-off, 43% now
  22. 39′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 42–31–26
  23. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 90+8' S. Powder · Westchester SC
  24. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 90+10' C. O'Dwyer · Sarasota Paradise
  25. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Sarasota Paradise win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
  26. 45′HALF-TIME Sarasota Paradise 0–0 Westchester SC
  27. 52′We said Sarasota Paradise at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–38–25
  28. 55′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 37–40–24
  29. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sarasota Paradise win 38%)
  30. 60′We said Sarasota Paradise at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–23
  31. 63′J. Bolanos scores for Sarasota Paradise on 61′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–4
  32. 63′We published Sarasota Paradise at 50%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–4
  33. 63′⚽ GOAL · 61' Sarasota Paradise 1–0 Westchester SC · J. Bolanos
  34. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Sarasota Paradise win: 50% at kick-off, 78% now
  35. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Sarasota Paradise win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 45%)
  36. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Westchester SC · On: A. Armas · Off: D. Bouman
  37. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Westchester SC · On: J. Jimenez · Off: K. Blommestijn
  38. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sarasota Paradise · On: M. Cence · Off: J. Bolanos
  39. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sarasota Paradise · On: E. Terzaghi · Off: D. Brulinski
  40. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Westchester SC · On: P. Elias · Off: K. Evans
  41. 67′67′: E. Terzaghi on the scoresheet for Sarasota Paradise, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  42. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Sarasota Paradise win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
  43. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Sarasota Paradise 2–0 Westchester SC · E. Terzaghi
  44. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Sarasota Paradise win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
  45. 68′We published Sarasota Paradise at 50%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  46. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Westchester SC · On: B. Pierre · Off: T. Timchenko
  47. FTFULL TIME Sarasota Paradise 2–2 Westchester SC
  48. FTSarasota Paradise 2–2 Westchester SC · Sarasota Paradise win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sarasota Paradise are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sarasota Paradise 50%, draw 22%, Westchester SC 28%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Sarasota Paradise v Westchester SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sarasota Paradise win50%
Draw22%
Westchester SC win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:30

RoundGroup stage

VenuePremier Sports Campus

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sarasota Paradise

Westchester SC

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · USL League One

Last match: 18 Oct · USL League One

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Westchester SC31+439
11Sarasota Paradise31−239

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sarasota paradise winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
50% The market53%
Us50%
Market53%

We make Sarasota Paradise a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sarasota Paradise v Westchester SC1.95 – 1.42
Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 16 SeptW4 D0 L2 · W5 D1 L0
Table places · points 39 v 3911 v 10
The market · Sarasota Paradise win53% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 19 OCT 01:3724 OCT 23:48
Our probability · Sarasota Paradise win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sarasota Paradise win50%53%−3
Draw22%23%−1
Westchester SC win28%24%+4
Over 2.5 goals65%65%0
Both teams to score65%65%0
Over 1.5 goals85%83%+2
Over 3.5 goals44%48%−4
Sarasota Paradise or draw72%76%−4
Sarasota Paradise clean sheet24%––
Westchester SC clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%
0123450 3.7 4.8 3.5 1 6.6 9.6 6.7 3.2 2 6.5 9.1 6.5 3.1 3 4.2 6.0 4.2 2.0 4 2.1 2.9 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sarasota Paradise down, Westchester SC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsWES 2–0 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 16 Sept

SARASOTA PARADISE

WWLWWL6–0 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–3

WESTCHESTER SC

WWDWWW5–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Charlotte Independence31+3166
2Union Omaha31+2061
3Forward Madison31+2455
4Boise31+855
5Spokane Velocity31+754
6One Knoxville32+1654
7Chattanooga Red Wolves31+646
8Fort Wayne31+745
9Naples31−843
10Westchester SC31+439
11Sarasota Paradise31−239
12Corpus Christi31−1536
13Alta31−833
14Portland Hearts of Pine31−1331
15Greenville Triumph31−2427
16NY Cosmos31−2626
17Richmond Kickers31−2726

The competition's standings before kick-off.