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Sarasota Paradise v Richmond Kickers

Sarasota Paradise

3–2Full time

Richmond Kickers

USL League One · SUN 11 OCT · Premier Sports Campus

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 03:00

Sarasota Paradise 3–2 Richmond Kickers SARASOTA PARADISE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sarasota Paradise win~~59%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.250

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.225

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sarasota Paradise win at 59%.
1′KICK-OFF Sarasota Paradise v Richmond Kickers
2′Little has changed for our model: Sarasota Paradise 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–21–20
3′Little has changed for our model: Sarasota Paradise 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–21–20
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Sarasota Paradise 0–1 Richmond Kickers · Lucca Dourado
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Sarasota Paradise 0–2 Richmond Kickers · A. Amer
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Sarasota Paradise 1–2 Richmond Kickers · K. Kiingi
45′🟨 YELLOW · 49' T. Pannholzer · Richmond Kickers
45′HALF-TIME Sarasota Paradise 1–2 Richmond Kickers
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sarasota Paradise · On: E. Terzaghi · Off: A. Rodriguez
46′SECOND HALF Sarasota Paradise 1–2 Richmond Kickers
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sarasota Paradise · On: D. Brulinski · Off: J. Bolanos Corrected
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Sarasota Paradise 2–2 Richmond Kickers · R. Gall
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Richmond Kickers · On: S. Layton · Off: D. Barnathan
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' S. Layton · Richmond Kickers
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Richmond Kickers · On: M. Bolduc · Off: H. Hanson
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' S. Vinberg · Richmond Kickers
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Richmond Kickers · On: A. Sasankhah · Off: A. Amer
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' D. Brulinski · Sarasota Paradise
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' A. Gallegos · Richmond Kickers
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sarasota Paradise · On: G. McLaughlin · Off: S. Roed
85′PENALTY MISSED · 85' E. Terzaghi · Sarasota Paradise
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Sarasota Paradise 3–2 Richmond Kickers · E. Terzaghi
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Richmond Kickers · On: Z. Vazquez · Off: T. Freeman
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' E. Terzaghi · Sarasota Paradise
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Richmond Kickers · On: L. Johnson · Off: Lucca Dourado
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Sarasota Paradise · On: R. Valentine · Off: K. Kiingi
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Sarasota Paradise · On: R. Burlew · Off: R. Gall
FTFULL TIME Sarasota Paradise 3–2 Richmond Kickers
FTSarasota Paradise 3–2 Richmond Kickers · Sarasota Paradise win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sarasota Paradise win59%

Draw21%

Richmond Kickers win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:30

Venue · Premier Sports Campus

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sarasota Paradise

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Sutton

24 K. Kiingi

4 D. Watters

5 A. Sogaard

36 A. Rosa

8 A. Walker

28 R. Gall

7 E. Bryant

16 A. Rodriguez

17 J. Bolanos

46 S. Roed

Coach · Mika Elovaara

Substitutes

23 · R. Amedeka

3 · R. Valentine

2 · R. Burlew

52 · K. Sanchez

32 · E. Terzaghi

19 · G. McLaughlin

27 · C. O'Dwyer

50 · D. Brulinski

60 · M. McGurk

Richmond Kickers

Formation not confirmed

35 J. Sneddon

2 D. Barnathan

22 S. Vinberg

44 A. Gallegos

45 H. Hanson

18 A. Amer

10 N. Seufert

99 D. Moore

23 T. Freeman

70 Lucca Dourado

11 T. Pannholzer

Coach · Darren Sawatzky

Substitutes

1 · Y. Fillion

4 · S. Layton

3 · H. Anderson

32 · M. Bolduc

6 · A. Sasankhah

7 · L. Johnson

14 · Z. Vazquez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sarasota Paradise

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Sutton

24 K. Kiingi

4 D. Watters

5 A. Sogaard

36 A. Rosa

8 A. Walker

28 R. Gall

7 E. Bryant

16 A. Rodriguez

17 J. Bolanos

46 S. Roed

Coach · Mika Elovaara

Substitutes

23 · R. Amedeka

3 · R. Valentine

2 · R. Burlew

52 · K. Sanchez

32 · E. Terzaghi

19 · G. McLaughlin

27 · C. O'Dwyer

50 · D. Brulinski

60 · M. McGurk

Richmond Kickers

Formation not confirmed

35 J. Sneddon

2 D. Barnathan

22 S. Vinberg

44 A. Gallegos

45 H. Hanson

18 A. Amer

10 N. Seufert

99 D. Moore

23 T. Freeman

70 Lucca Dourado

11 T. Pannholzer

Coach · Darren Sawatzky

Substitutes

1 · Y. Fillion

4 · S. Layton

3 · H. Anderson

32 · M. Bolduc

6 · A. Sasankhah

7 · L. Johnson

14 · Z. Vazquez

Our number · sarasota paradise winPublished 11 Oct 00:31

59% The market61%

Us59%

~~Market~~61%

We make Sarasota Paradise a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sarasota paradise win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarasota Paradise win	59%	61%	−2
Draw	21%	21%	0
Richmond Kickers win	20%	17%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	62%	62%	0
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	42%	−2
Sarasota Paradise or draw	80%	83%	−2
Sarasota Paradise clean sheet	33%	–	–
Richmond Kickers clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.4 4.4 2.6 1 8.3 9.7 5.3 2 8.8 9.7 5.4 2.0 3 6.1 6.8 3.8 4 3.2 3.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarasota Paradise down, Richmond Kickers across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,140 USL League One matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 245 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sarasota Paradise at home: 2.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Richmond Kickers away: 1.00 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Sarasota Paradise, 1.12 for Richmond Kickers. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~RIC 0–0 SAR

Form · last six in USL League One

SARASOTA PARADISE

WDDWWL2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 4–1 · 2–3

RICHMOND KICKERS

DLLLWL1–1 · 2–5 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Omaha	29	+22	61
2	Charlotte Independence	29	+25	60
3	Forward Madison	29	+23	52
4	One Knoxville	30	+15	51
5	Boise	29	+6	49
6	Spokane Velocity	27	+5	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	+7	46
8	Fort Wayne	29	+8	42
9	Naples	29	−10	37
10	Corpus Christi	29	−10	36
11	Westchester SC	29	+2	33
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	−4	33
13	Alta	29	−7	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	−10	31
15	NY Cosmos	28	−20	25
16	Greenville Triumph	28	−22	23
17	Richmond Kickers	29	−30	23