Sarasota Paradise v Naples prediction · USL League One

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 02:00

Sarasota Paradise 2–3 Naples SARASOTA PARADISE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sarasota Paradise win~~48%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.833

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.808

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sarasota Paradise win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sarasota Paradise was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
1′KICK-OFF Sarasota Paradise v Naples
36′35′: S. Roed on the scoresheet for Sarasota Paradise, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Sarasota Paradise 1–0 Naples · S. Roed
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Sarasota Paradise win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
37′We published Sarasota Paradise at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
39′Naples level it on 39′ through T. Collins. 1–1. 1–1 · 40–36–24
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Sarasota Paradise 1–1 Naples · T. Collins
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Sarasota Paradise win: 48% at kick-off, 40% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Sarasota Paradise win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Sarasota Paradise 1–1 Naples
46′SECOND HALF Sarasota Paradise 1–1 Naples
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sarasota Paradise win 38%)
50′We said Sarasota Paradise at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–41–23
54′We said Sarasota Paradise at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–44–22
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' A. Sogaard · Sarasota Paradise
61′K. O'Connor scores for Naples on 61′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 7–23–69
61′We said Sarasota Paradise at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–23–69
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Sarasota Paradise 1–2 Naples · K. O'Connor
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Sarasota Paradise win: 48% at kick-off, 7% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Naples win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 49%)
62′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 7–23–70
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sarasota Paradise · On: G. McLaughlin · Off: R. Gall
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Naples · On: G. Miglietti · Off: C. Garcia
69′We said Sarasota Paradise at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' L. Mastrantonio · Naples
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' O. Ciss · Naples
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sarasota Paradise · On: M. Cence · Off: E. Bryant
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Naples · On: J. Osorio · Off: T. Collins
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' D. Watters · Sarasota Paradise
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Naples · On: N. Likulia · Off: K. O'Connor
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Naples · On: H. Gay · Off: A. Ferrin
92′90′: J. Bolanos on the scoresheet for Sarasota Paradise, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 3–94–2
92′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 3–94–2
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Sarasota Paradise 2–2 Naples · J. Bolanos (assist G. McLaughlin)
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' G. Miglietti · Naples
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Naples win 96%)
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Sarasota Paradise · On: R. Valentine · Off: A. Sogaard
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Sarasota Paradise · On: S. Karani · Off: K. Kiingi
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' H. Uderitz · Naples
95′A red card for Sarasota Paradise on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–2 · 2–97–1
95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+4' A. Walker · Sarasota Paradise
96′Naples ahead on 90′ through H. Uderitz. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–2–98
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Sarasota Paradise 2–3 Naples · H. Uderitz
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Naples win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 97%)
97′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Sarasota Paradise 2–3 Naples
FTSarasota Paradise 2–3 Naples · Sarasota Paradise win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sarasota Paradise are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sarasota Paradise 48%, draw 25%, Naples 27%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Sarasota Paradise v NaplesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Sarasota Paradise win48%

Draw25%

Naples win27%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 23:30

RoundGroup stage

VenuePremier Sports Campus

Line-ups

Sarasota Paradise

Naples

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sarasota Paradise

Naples

4Days since last match10

Last match: 18 Oct · USL League One

Last match: 11 Oct · USL League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Naples	30	−9	40
11	Sarasota Paradise	30	−1	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sarasota Paradise

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Sutton

24 K. Kiingi

4 D. Watters

5 A. Sogaard

36 A. Rosa

8 A. Walker

28 R. Gall

7 E. Bryant

32 E. Terzaghi

17 J. Bolanos

46 S. Roed

Coach · Mika Elovaara

Substitutes

23 · R. Amedeka

3 · R. Valentine

2 · R. Burlew

52 · K. Sanchez

19 · G. McLaughlin

27 · C. O'Dwyer

11 · S. Karani

50 · D. Brulinski

10 · M. Cence

Naples

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Delgado

20 J. Yearwood

4 H. Uderitz

5 L. Mastrantonio

3 J. Cisneros

6 O. Ciss

21 M. Torrellas

24 T. Collins

14 K. O'Connor

10 A. Ferrin

11 C. Garcia

Coach · Zak Gordon

Substitutes

17 · T. Halterman

12 · H. Gay

8 · J. Osorio

23 · A. Mesias

30 · I. Cerro

16 · A. Bulai-Tudor

9 · G. Miglietti

45 · N. Likulia

Our number · sarasota paradise winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 03:17 · locked at kick-off

48% The market47%

Us48%

~~Market~~47%

We make Sarasota Paradise a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sarasota Paradise v Naples~~1.61 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 39 v 40~~11 v 9

~~The market · Sarasota Paradise win~~47% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sarasota Paradise win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarasota Paradise win	48%	47%	+1
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Naples win	27%	28%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	52%	57%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	59%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	37%	−7
Sarasota Paradise or draw	73%	72%	+1
Sarasota Paradise clean sheet	32%	–	–
Naples clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.7 7.2 4.1 1 10.2 11.8 6.6 2.5 2 8.3 9.3 5.3 2.0 3 4.5 5.0 2.8 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarasota Paradise down, Naples across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 USL League One matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.7% of games this season, across 262 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sarasota Paradise at home: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Naples away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Sarasota Paradise, 1.13 for Naples. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NAP 0–2 SAR · NAP 2–0 SAR · SAR 1–2 NAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 11 Sept

SARASOTA PARADISE

DWWLWW1–1 · 6–0 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 3–1

NAPLES

DDWWWW0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	31	+31	66
2	Union Omaha	31	+20	61
3	Forward Madison	31	+24	55
4	Boise	31	+8	55
5	One Knoxville	32	+16	54
6	Spokane Velocity	30	+7	53
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	31	+6	46
8	Fort Wayne	31	+7	45
9	Naples	30	−9	40
10	Westchester SC	31	+4	39
11	Sarasota Paradise	30	−1	39
12	Corpus Christi	31	−15	36
13	Alta	31	−8	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	31	−13	31
15	Greenville Triumph	31	−24	27
16	Richmond Kickers	31	−27	26
17	NY Cosmos	30	−26	25