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Richmond Kickers v Greenville Triumph

Richmond Kickers

0–1Full time

Greenville Triumph

USL League One · SAT 24 OCT · City Stadium

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Richmond Kickers 0–1 Greenville Triumph RICHMOND KICKERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Richmond Kickers win~~44%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.702

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.585

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Richmond Kickers win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Richmond Kickers 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–33
1′KICK-OFF Richmond Kickers v Greenville Triumph
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' A. Sasankhah · Richmond Kickers
45′HALF-TIME Richmond Kickers 0–0 Greenville Triumph
46′SECOND HALF Richmond Kickers 0–0 Greenville Triumph
50′Greenville Triumph ahead on 50′ through R. Robles. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–24–66
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Richmond Kickers win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Richmond Kickers 0–1 Greenville Triumph · R. Robles
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Richmond Kickers win: 44% at kick-off, 11% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Greenville Triumph win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Richmond Kickers win 36%)
51′We said Richmond Kickers at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–23–66
55′We said Richmond Kickers at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Greenville Triumph · On: E. Lee · Off: I. Agyaakwah
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Greenville Triumph · On: L. Castro · Off: B. Larsen
70′We said Richmond Kickers at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Richmond Kickers win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' A. Villanueva · Greenville Triumph
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Richmond Kickers · On: D. Espinal · Off: Z. Vazquez
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Richmond Kickers · On: H. Anderson · Off: M. Bolduc
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' D. Barnathan · Richmond Kickers
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Richmond Kickers · On: T. Freeman · Off: D. Barnathan
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Greenville Triumph · On: D. Boyce · Off: R. Robles
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Greenville Triumph · On: D. Benton · Off: M. Nour
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Greenville Triumph · On: C. Evans · Off: T. Sims
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Richmond Kickers · On: A. Amer · Off: A. Sasankhah
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Richmond Kickers · On: L. Johnson · Off: Lucca Dourado
FTFULL TIME Richmond Kickers 0–1 Greenville Triumph
FTRichmond Kickers 0–1 Greenville Triumph · Richmond Kickers win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Richmond Kickers are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Richmond Kickers 44%, draw 24%, Greenville Triumph 33%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Richmond Kickers v Greenville TriumphBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Richmond Kickers win44%

Draw24%

Greenville Triumph win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 23:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueCity Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Richmond Kickers

Greenville Triumph

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · USL League One

Last match: 18 Oct · USL League One

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Greenville Triumph	31	−24	27
17	Richmond Kickers	31	−27	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · richmond kickers winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:46 · locked at kick-off

44% The market37%

Us44%

~~Market~~37%

We make Richmond Kickers a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Richmond Kickers v Greenville Triumph~~1.71 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 26 v 27~~17 v 15

~~The market · Richmond Kickers win~~37% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Richmond Kickers win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Richmond Kickers win	44%	37%	+7
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Greenville Triumph win	33%	38%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	61%	0
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	41%	−2
Richmond Kickers or draw	67%	62%	+5
Richmond Kickers clean sheet	24%	–	–
Greenville Triumph clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.6 6.1 4.5 2.2 1 7.3 10.6 7.5 3.6 2 6.3 8.9 6.3 3.1 3 3.6 5.1 3.6 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Richmond Kickers down, Greenville Triumph across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,159 USL League One matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.0% of games this season, across 264 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Richmond Kickers at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Greenville Triumph away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Richmond Kickers, 1.44 for Greenville Triumph. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GRE 1–2 RIC · GRE 0–3 RIC · GRE 2–0 RIC · RIC 3–3 GRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 19 Sept

RICHMOND KICKERS

LLWLLW1–2 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 5–1

GREENVILLE TRIUMPH

LLLDWL0–6 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	31	+31	66
2	Union Omaha	31	+20	61
3	Forward Madison	31	+24	55
4	Boise	31	+8	55
5	Spokane Velocity	31	+7	54
6	One Knoxville	32	+16	54
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	31	+6	46
8	Fort Wayne	31	+7	45
9	Naples	31	−8	43
10	Westchester SC	31	+4	39
11	Sarasota Paradise	31	−2	39
12	Corpus Christi	31	−15	36
13	Alta	31	−8	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	31	−13	31
15	Greenville Triumph	31	−24	27
16	NY Cosmos	31	−26	26
17	Richmond Kickers	31	−27	26