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Richmond Kickers v Corpus Christi

Richmond Kickers

5–1Full time

Corpus Christi

USL League One · SAT 17 OCT · City Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Richmond Kickers 5–1 Corpus Christi RICHMOND KICKERS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Richmond Kickers win~~39%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.560

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.598

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Richmond Kickers win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Richmond Kickers v Corpus Christi
2′Little has changed for our model: Richmond Kickers 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–36
8′8′: J. Keegan on the scoresheet for Corpus Christi, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–21–62
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Richmond Kickers 0–1 Corpus Christi · J. Keegan
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Richmond Kickers win: 39% at kick-off, 18% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Corpus Christi win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Richmond Kickers win 18%)
10′7′: J. Keegan on the scoresheet for Corpus Christi, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–21–62
12′7′: J. Keegan on the scoresheet for Corpus Christi, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–21–62
12′We said Richmond Kickers at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–21–62
26′We said Richmond Kickers at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 13–22–64
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+8' E. Zayed · Corpus Christi
45′HALF-TIME Richmond Kickers 1–1 Corpus Christi
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Richmond Kickers · On: O. O'Malley · Off: Z. Vazquez
46′SECOND HALF Richmond Kickers 1–1 Corpus Christi
47′We said Richmond Kickers at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Richmond Kickers win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
50′Richmond Kickers level it on 45′ through T. Pannholzer. 1–1. 1–1 · 31–41–29
50′⚽ GOAL · 45+5' Richmond Kickers 1–1 Corpus Christi · T. Pannholzer (penalty)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+5' Richmond Kickers win: 39% at kick-off, 31% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Corpus Christi win 29%)
50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' J. Keaney · Corpus Christi
52′Lucca Dourado scores for Richmond Kickers on 51′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 72–21–7
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Richmond Kickers 2–1 Corpus Christi · Lucca Dourado
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Richmond Kickers win: 39% at kick-off, 72% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Richmond Kickers win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
53′52′: T. Pannholzer on the scoresheet for Richmond Kickers, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 93–6–1
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Richmond Kickers 3–1 Corpus Christi · T. Pannholzer
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Richmond Kickers win: 39% at kick-off, 93% now
54′We said Richmond Kickers at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 3–1 · 93–6–1
55′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 93–5–1
62′Richmond Kickers ahead on 61′ through T. Pannholzer. 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Richmond Kickers 4–1 Corpus Christi · T. Pannholzer
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Richmond Kickers win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
64′We said Richmond Kickers at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 4–1 · 99–1–0
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Richmond Kickers · On: T. Freeman · Off: Lucca Dourado
65′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 99–0–0
66′We said Richmond Kickers at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Corpus Christi · On: D. Bachstein · Off: K. T. Thomas
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Corpus Christi · On: M. Shalita · Off: S. Gomez
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Corpus Christi · On: P. Vasic · Off: K. Barganski
74′O. O'Malley scores for Richmond Kickers on 74′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Richmond Kickers 5–1 Corpus Christi · O. O'Malley
75′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Richmond Kickers · On: S. Vinberg · Off: D. Barnathan
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Richmond Kickers · On: A. Amer · Off: A. Sasankhah
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' O. O'Malley · Richmond Kickers
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Corpus Christi · On: I. Abeal · Off: J. Keaney
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Richmond Kickers · On: H. Anderson · Off: H. Hanson
FTFULL TIME Richmond Kickers 5–1 Corpus Christi
FTRichmond Kickers 5–1 Corpus Christi · Richmond Kickers win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Richmond Kickers just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Richmond Kickers 39%, draw 25%, Corpus Christi 36%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Richmond Kickers v Corpus ChristiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Richmond Kickers win39%

Draw25%

Corpus Christi win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 23:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueCity Stadium

Line-ups

Richmond Kickers

Corpus Christi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Richmond Kickers

Corpus Christi

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · USL League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Corpus Christi	30	−11	36
17	Richmond Kickers	30	−31	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Richmond Kickers

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Fillion

32 M. Bolduc

2 D. Barnathan

4 S. Layton

44 A. Gallegos

45 H. Hanson

11 T. Pannholzer

10 N. Seufert

6 A. Sasankhah

14 Z. Vazquez

70 Lucca Dourado

Coach · Darren Sawatzky

Substitutes

35 · J. Sneddon

26 · M. Murana

22 · S. Vinberg

12 · O. O'Malley

34 · B. Howell

99 · D. Moore

43 · G. Codjoe

3 · H. Anderson

18 · A. Amer

23 · T. Freeman

7 · L. Johnson

Corpus Christi

Formation not confirmed

24 M. McCready

7 K. T. Thomas

4 J. Keaney

5 S. Roscoe

22 S. Gomez

6 P. Langlois

2 B. Bowen

26 A. Medina

27 T. Pondeca

19 K. Barganski

12 J. Keegan

Coach · Eamon Zayed

Substitutes

15 · J. Parks

14 · P. Vasic

21 · I. Abeal

17 · M. Shalita

18 · D. Bachstein

Our number · richmond kickers winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make Richmond Kickers a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Richmond Kickers v Corpus Christi~~1.47 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 23 v 36~~17 v 12

~~The market · Richmond Kickers win~~37% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Richmond Kickers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Richmond Kickers win	39%	37%	+2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Corpus Christi win	36%	37%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	58%	60%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
Richmond Kickers or draw	64%	63%	+1
Richmond Kickers clean sheet	25%	–	–
Corpus Christi clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.0 7.8 5.5 2.6 1 8.3 11.7 8.0 3.8 2 6.2 8.5 5.9 2.7 3 3.1 4.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Richmond Kickers down, Corpus Christi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,149 USL League One matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 254 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Richmond Kickers at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Corpus Christi away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Richmond Kickers, 1.40 for Corpus Christi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~COR 1–0 RIC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 13 Sept

RICHMOND KICKERS

LLLWLL2–5 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 2–3

CORPUS CHRISTI

LWWLLL1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	30	+28	63
2	Union Omaha	30	+21	61
3	Forward Madison	30	+22	52
4	Boise	30	+7	52
5	One Knoxville	31	+13	51
6	Spokane Velocity	29	+6	50
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	+7	46
8	Fort Wayne	30	+9	45
9	Naples	30	−9	40
10	Westchester SC	30	+3	36
11	Sarasota Paradise	29	−3	36
12	Corpus Christi	30	−11	36
13	Alta	30	−7	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	−11	31
15	Greenville Triumph	30	−21	27
16	NY Cosmos	29	−23	25
17	Richmond Kickers	30	−31	23