Home › Football › USL League One › Portland Hearts of Pine v Charlotte Independence

Portland Hearts of Pine v Charlotte Independence

Portland Hearts of Pine

4–1Full time

Charlotte Independence

USL League One · SAT 24 OCT · Fitzpatrick Stadium

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 00:34

Portland Hearts of Pine 4–1 Charlotte Independence CHARLOTTE INDEPENDENCE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Charlotte Independence win~~41%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.621

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.867

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Charlotte Independence win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Charlotte Independence was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 37–22–41
1′KICK-OFF Portland Hearts of Pine v Charlotte Independence
11′SUBSTITUTION · 11' Charlotte Independence · On: M. Lyons · Off: R. Manin
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' M. Lopez · Portland Hearts of Pine
34′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Charlotte Independence · On: J. Skinner · Off: F. Ngah
42′40′: A. Camara on the scoresheet for Portland Hearts of Pine, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 64–22–14
42′⚽ GOAL · 40' Portland Hearts of Pine 1–0 Charlotte Independence · A. Camara (assist M. Poon-Angeron)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Charlotte Independence win: 41% at kick-off, 14% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Portland Hearts of Pine win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Charlotte Independence win 36%)
43′We said Charlotte Independence at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 64–22–13
45′HALF-TIME Portland Hearts of Pine 1–1 Charlotte Independence
46′Charlotte Independence level it on 45′ through J. Skinner. 1–1. 1–1 · 32–34–35
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Portland Hearts of Pine 1–1 Charlotte Independence · J. Skinner
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Charlotte Independence win: 41% at kick-off, 35% now
46′SECOND HALF Portland Hearts of Pine 1–1 Charlotte Independence
47′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 1–1 · 31–34–35
54′M. Lopez scores for Portland Hearts of Pine on 53′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 68–22–10
54′PENALTY MISSED · 53' M. Lopez · Portland Hearts of Pine
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Portland Hearts of Pine 2–1 Charlotte Independence · M. Lopez
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Charlotte Independence win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
57′We said Charlotte Independence at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 69–22–9
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Portland Hearts of Pine · On: J. Kamara · Off: M. Lopez
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Portland Hearts of Pine · On: D. Letayf · Off: M. Poon-Angeron
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Portland Hearts of Pine · On: D. Barbosa · Off: W. Varela
71′We said Charlotte Independence at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' D. Barbosa · Portland Hearts of Pine
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Charlotte Independence win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
82′82′: D. Barbosa on the scoresheet for Portland Hearts of Pine, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Portland Hearts of Pine 3–1 Charlotte Independence · D. Barbosa
83′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' J. Bakero · Charlotte Independence
91′Portland Hearts of Pine ahead on 90′ through A. Camara. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Portland Hearts of Pine 4–1 Charlotte Independence · A. Camara
92′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Portland Hearts of Pine · On: S. Faye · Off: B. Evans
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Portland Hearts of Pine · On: K. Oladapo · Off: H. Morse
FTFULL TIME Portland Hearts of Pine 4–1 Charlotte Independence
FTPortland Hearts of Pine 4–1 Charlotte Independence · Charlotte Independence win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Charlotte Independence just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Portland Hearts of Pine 37%, draw 22%, Charlotte Independence 41%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Portland Hearts of Pine v Charlotte IndependenceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Portland Hearts of Pine win37%

Draw22%

Charlotte Independence win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 22:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueFitzpatrick Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Portland Hearts of Pine

Charlotte Independence

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · USL League One

Last match: 18 Oct · USL League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · charlotte independence winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:46 · locked at kick-off

41% The market52%

Us41%

~~Market~~52%

We make Charlotte Independence a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Portland Hearts of Pine v Charlotte Independence~~1.72 – 1.84

~~Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 31 v 66~~14 v 1

~~The market · Charlotte Independence win~~52% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Charlotte Independence win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Portland Hearts of Pine win	37%	26%	+11
Draw	22%	22%	0
Charlotte Independence win	41%	52%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	69%	70%	−1
Both teams to score	69%	68%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	87%	84%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	48%	50%	−2
Portland Hearts of Pine or draw	59%	48%	+11
Portland Hearts of Pine clean sheet	16%	–	–
Charlotte Independence clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.1 5.2 4.8 3.0 1 4.9 9.1 8.1 5.0 2.3 2 4.3 7.7 7.0 4.3 3 2.5 4.4 4.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Portland Hearts of Pine down, Charlotte Independence across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,159 USL League One matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.0% of games this season, across 264 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 4.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Portland Hearts of Pine at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Charlotte Independence away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Portland Hearts of Pine, 1.84 for Charlotte Independence. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CHA 3–2 POR · POR 4–2 CHA · CHA 1–1 POR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 13 Sept

PORTLAND HEARTS OF PINE

WDLDLL1–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 0–2

CHARLOTTE INDEPENDENCE

DWDWWW1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	31	+31	66
2	Union Omaha	31	+20	61
3	Forward Madison	31	+24	55
4	Boise	31	+8	55
5	Spokane Velocity	31	+7	54
6	One Knoxville	32	+16	54
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	31	+6	46
8	Fort Wayne	31	+7	45
9	Naples	31	−8	43
10	Westchester SC	31	+4	39
11	Sarasota Paradise	31	−2	39
12	Corpus Christi	31	−15	36
13	Alta	31	−8	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	31	−13	31
15	Greenville Triumph	31	−24	27
16	NY Cosmos	31	−26	26
17	Richmond Kickers	31	−27	26