Home › Football › USL League One › Portland Hearts of Pine v Boise

Portland Hearts of Pine v Boise

Portland Hearts of Pine

1–2Full time

Boise

USL League One · SAT 10 OCT · Fitzpatrick Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 00:30

Portland Hearts of Pine 1–2 Boise PORTLAND HEARTS OF PINE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Portland Hearts of Pine win~~44%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.715

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.380

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Portland Hearts of Pine win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Portland Hearts of Pine v Boise
2′Much as we predicted: Portland Hearts of Pine was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–32
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' D. Letayf · Portland Hearts of Pine
45′HALF-TIME Portland Hearts of Pine 0–0 Boise
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Portland Hearts of Pine · On: M. Poon-Angeron · Off: D. Letayf
46′SECOND HALF Portland Hearts of Pine 0–0 Boise
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Portland Hearts of Pine 0–1 Boise · T. Moshobane
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Portland Hearts of Pine · On: D. Barbosa · Off: J. Kamara
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Portland Hearts of Pine 1–1 Boise · D. Gonzalez
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Boise · On: D. Gasso · Off: M. Ndiaye
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Portland Hearts of Pine · On: W. Varela · Off: Felipe
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' K. Green · Portland Hearts of Pine
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Portland Hearts of Pine 1–2 Boise · J. Ricketts
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' T. Amang · Boise
FTPortland Hearts of Pine 1–2 Boise · Portland Hearts of Pine win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Portland Hearts of Pine win44%

Draw24%

Boise win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 22:00

Venue · Fitzpatrick Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Portland Hearts of Pine

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Morse

6 M. Mohamed

66 K. Green

22 B. Evans

99 J. Drack

4 D. Letayf

98 M. Kidd

11 J. Kamara

16 D. Gonzalez

24 Felipe

9 A. Camara

Coach · Bobby Murphy

Substitutes

23 · K. Oladapo

44 · S. Faye

25 · E. Espinosa

18 · D. Barbosa

8 · M. Poon-Angeron

7 · W. Varela

5 · M. Lopez

Boise

Formation not confirmed

18 J. Kliewer

15 J. Yaro

25 J. Dengler

16 J. Crull

2 J. Ricketts

66 P. Mayaka

5 M. Ndiaye

14 N. Moon

10 D. Kostyshyn

22 T. Amang

11 T. Moshobane

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · J. Mazzola

8 · D. Gasso

3 · K. Oyler

6 · C. Adams

23 · O. Yehya

9 · Luan Brito

17 · J. Hanson

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Portland Hearts of Pine

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Morse

6 M. Mohamed

66 K. Green

22 B. Evans

99 J. Drack

4 D. Letayf

98 M. Kidd

11 J. Kamara

16 D. Gonzalez

24 Felipe

9 A. Camara

Coach · Bobby Murphy

Substitutes

23 · K. Oladapo

44 · S. Faye

25 · E. Espinosa

18 · D. Barbosa

8 · M. Poon-Angeron

7 · W. Varela

5 · M. Lopez

Boise

Formation not confirmed

18 J. Kliewer

15 J. Yaro

25 J. Dengler

16 J. Crull

2 J. Ricketts

66 P. Mayaka

5 M. Ndiaye

14 N. Moon

10 D. Kostyshyn

22 T. Amang

11 T. Moshobane

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · J. Mazzola

8 · D. Gasso

3 · K. Oyler

6 · C. Adams

23 · O. Yehya

9 · Luan Brito

17 · J. Hanson

Our number · portland hearts of pine winPublished 10 Oct 22:04

44% The market27%

Us44%

~~Market~~27%

We make Portland Hearts of Pine a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · portland hearts of pine win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Portland Hearts of Pine win	44%	27%	+17
Draw	24%	24%	0
Boise win	32%	50%	−18
Over 2.5 goals	60%	65%	−5
Both teams to score	61%	64%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
Portland Hearts of Pine or draw	68%	50%	+18
Portland Hearts of Pine clean sheet	25%	–	–
Boise clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 4.9 6.2 4.5 2.1 1 7.4 11.0 7.5 3.5 2 6.5 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 3.6 5.0 3.5 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Portland Hearts of Pine down, Boise across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,140 USL League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 245 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Portland Hearts of Pine at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Boise away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Portland Hearts of Pine, 1.41 for Boise. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BOI 2–1 POR

Form · last six in USL League One

PORTLAND HEARTS OF PINE

LWWDLD2–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 3–3

BOISE

WWDDLW2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Omaha	29	+22	61
2	Charlotte Independence	29	+25	60
3	Forward Madison	29	+23	52
4	One Knoxville	30	+15	51
5	Boise	29	+6	49
6	Spokane Velocity	27	+5	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	+7	46
8	Fort Wayne	29	+8	42
9	Naples	29	−10	37
10	Corpus Christi	29	−10	36
11	Westchester SC	29	+2	33
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	−4	33
13	Alta	29	−7	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	−10	31
15	NY Cosmos	28	−20	25
16	Greenville Triumph	28	−22	23
17	Richmond Kickers	29	−30	23